IMF Working paper-Sharing a Ride on the Commodities Roller Coaster: Common Factors in Business Cycles of Emerging Economies
December 29, 2015--Summary:
Fluctuations in commodity prices are an important driver of business cycles in small emerging market economies (EMEs). We document how these fluctuations correlate strongly with the business cycle in EMEs.
We then embed a commodity sector into a multi-country EMEs' business cycle model where exogenous fluctuations in commodity prices follow a common dynamic factor structure and coexist with other driving forces. The estimated model assigns to commodity shocks 42 percent of the variance in income, of which a considerable part is linked to the common factor. A further amplification mechanism is a "spillover" effect from commodity prices to risk premia.
Source:IMF
IMF Working Paper-Will Macroprudential Policy Counteract Monetary Policy's Effects on Financial Stability?
December 29, 2015--Summary: How does monetary policy impact upon macroprudential regulation? This paper models monetary policy's transmission to bank risk taking, and its interaction with a regulator's optimization problem. The regulator uses its macroprudential tool, a leverage ratio, to maintain financial stability, while taking account of the impact on credit provision.
A change in the monetary policy rate tilts the regulator's entire trade-off. We show that the regulator allows interest rate changes to partly "pass through" to bank soundness by not neutralizing the risk-taking channel of monetary policy. Thus, monetary policy affects financial stability, even in the presence of macroprudential regulation.
Source: IMF
Dollar Rises as Hedge Funds Position for Further Gains in 2016
December 28, 2015--Speculators added bets on dollar gains after Fed liftoff
Greenback rises versus euro, Swiss franc and British pound
The dollar climbed the most in nearly two weeks versus the euro after a report showed hedge funds boosted bets on a strong greenback for the first time in a month.
Source: Bloomberg
The Top Agriculture Stories of 2015
December 28, 2015--Many of the world's greatest challenges -climate change, poverty, natural resource depletion, and hunger- intersect on the fields of the world's farmers.
These global challenges provide the backdrop to our top agriculture stories of 2015.
1. Climate-Smart Agriculture is vital to mitigating climate change
If there is one topic that dominates the rest this year, it's climate change. At the conclusion of this month's historic climate conference in Paris, more than 180 countries submitted plans for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to climate change.
< href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2015/12/28/the-top-five-agriculture-stories-of-2015" TARGET="_top">view more
Source: World Bank
IMF Working paper-Changes in the Global Investor Base and the Stability of Portfolio Flows to Emerging Markets
December 28, 2015--Summary: An analysis of mutual-fund-level flow data into EM bond and equity markets confirms that different types of funds behave differently. Bond funds are more sensitive to global factors and engage more in return chasing than equity funds.
Flows from retail, open-end, and offshore funds are more volatile. Global funds are more stable in their EM investments than "dedicated" EM funds. Differences in the stability of flows from ultimate investors play a key role in explaining these patterns. The changing mix of global investors over the past 15 year has probably made portfolio flows to EMs more sensitive to global financial conditions.
Source: IMF
Deutsche Bank to Sell Stake in Chinese Bank
19.99% ownership of Hua Xia Bank being acquired by PICC Property and Casualty
December 28, 2015--Deutsche Bank AG has agreed to sell its entire stake in Chinese bank Hua Xia Bank Co., the German lender said on Monday.
Deutsche will sell its 19.99% stake to PICC Property and Casualty Co. Ltd., an arm of a Chinese insurer, for between 23 billion yuan and 25.7 billion yuan, depending on the exchange rate, the company said.
Source: Wall Street Journal
Cryan sells out of China to boost Deutsche Bank capital levels
December 28, 2015--Deutsche Bank is to sell its stake in the Chinese lender
Hua Xia for up to €3.7bn as Germany's biggest bank steps up efforts to strengthen its balance sheet under John Cryan.view more
Source: FT.com
US warns Europe over granting market economy status to China
December 28, 2015--Washington has warned Brussels against granting China 'market economy status', saying the long-sought trade concession could hamper efforts to prevent Chinese
companies flooding US and European markets with unfairly cheap goods.
Source: FT.com
ETFs to play main role in the next crisis
Liquidity fears in indexed products have caused jitters this year
December 28, 2015--The next financial crisis will be played out in indexes and exchange traded funds.
That is inevitable given the huge share that ETFs now take of investor fund flows, and their popularity as hedge fund trading vehicles.
Source: FT.com
World Bank-Year in Review: 2015 in 12 charts
December 24, 2015--Now that we've reached the end of 2015, it's clear this was a year of major milestones, emerging trends, and new beginnings.
Among other things, 2015 marked a historic drop in poverty, a major climate change agreement, and record low child and maternal mortality rates. Take a look at what the data show.
1. The Global Poverty Rate Fell below 10%
2. The World Reached an Accord on Climate Change
3. A Record Number of People Were Forcibly Displaced
Source: World Bank