ETF Securities Commodity Research: Review of 2015 Commodity ETP Flows
January 21, 2015--Bargain hunters drive strong energy ETC inflows defying the oil price slide of 2015
Precious metal ETP outflows cast a shadow in 2015 weighed by the stronger dollar and the indecisiveness of the Fed.
Steady rise of inflows over the course of H2 2015 into diversified basket ETPs underpin hopes of a commodity turnaround 2015 will be remembered as one of the most volatile years for commodities, facing the repercussions of a structural slowdown in Chinarising geopolitical risks and the Volkswagen emissions scandal.
Asset under management
(AUM) in commodity ETPs ended the year lower owing to a significant price impact of -20% and a meagre -1% of flows.
Redemptions in gold ETPs were the largest sector contributor to the decline in AUM. In contrast, energy ETPs continued to accumulate assets, as investor inflows surged by 407%, more than offsetting the energy price decline.
Assets under management 2015
Source: ETF Securities
Commodity flows by sector
Commodity ETP flows during the course of the year were extremely uneven. March, April, June and July experienced outflows of nearly US$2.4bn, while the remaining months saw positive inflows, The second half of the year witnessed a steady rise of inflows into diversified baskets, highlighting investor,s preference for strategic portfolio diversification against a backdrop of multi-year low prices. Outflows were at their heaviest in March 2015, driven mainly by precious metals. Gold in particular,
Source: ETF Securities
WEF-Digital Media and Society: Implications in a Hyperconnected Era
January 20, 2016--The Digital Media and Society report is a main output of The World Economic Forum's The Shaping the Future implications of Digital Media for Society project.
The report explores our changing relationship with media, entertainment, and information, due to digitization and the implications this has on individuals and society.
view the Digital Media and Society Implications in a Hyperconnected Era report
Source: World Economic Forum
Capital flight from China worse than thought
January 20, 2016--Emerging markets saw an estimated $735bn in net capital outflows last year.
Source: FT.com
The Refugee Surge in Europe: Economic Challenges
January 20, 2016--Summary: Against the background of political turmoil in the Middle-East, Europe faces an unprecedented surge in asylum applications. In analyzing the economic impact of this inflow, this paper draws from the experience of previous economic migrants and refugees, mindful of the fact that the characteristics of economic migrants can be different from refugees. In the short-run, additional public expenditure will provide a small positive impact on GDP, concentrated in the main destination countries of Germany,
Sweden and Austria. Over the longer-term, depending on the speed and success of the integration of refugees in the labor market, the increase in the labor force can have a more lasting impact on growth and the public finances. Here good policies will make an important difference. These include lowering barriers to labor markets for refugees, for example through wage subsidies to employers, and, in particular, reducing legal barriers to labor market participation during asylum process, removing obstacles to entrepreneurship/self-employment, providing job training and job search assistance, as well as language skills. While native workers often have legitimate concerns about the impact of immigrants on wages and employment, past experience indicates that any adverse effects are limited and temporary.
view the IMF-The Refugee Surge in Europe: Economic Challenges
Source: IMF
New IMF Staff Paper Looks at How to Reap the Benefits and Curtail the Risks of Virtual Currencies
January 20, 2016--Virtual currencies (VCs) and especially their underlying technologies are a potentially important advance for the financial sector that could increase efficiency and financial inclusion, but can also serve as vehicles for money laundering, terrorism financing, and tax evasion.
Achieving a balanced regulatory framework that guards against risks without suffocating innovation is a challenge that will require extensive international cooperation, says a new staff paper, "Virtual Currencies and Beyond: Initial Considerations," released today by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) during the World Economic Forum.
view the IMF Virtual Currencies and Beyond: Initial Considerations report
Source: IMF
ETF Securities Commodity Research: Oil: Impacts of lifting US export ban and Iranian sanctions
January 19, 2016--Summary
A longstanding ban on the export of most crude oil from the US was lifted on December 18th 2015.
On January 16th 2016, sanctions placed on Iranian oil exports were lifted after the International Atomic Energy Agency found the country to be compliant with its nuclear deal.
Neither event is likely to drive global oil supply up in the near term mainly due to the lack of infrastructure and currently depressed prices. The sharp negative oil price reaction to Iranian sanction lift is therefore likely to reverse.
Source: ETF Securities
S&P publishes MENA Rating Trends 2016
January 19, 2016--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said that overall sovereign creditworthiness in the Middle East and North African (MENA) region has deteriorated since Standard & Poor's last published six months ago.
The rating agency has published the report Middle East And North Africa Sovereign Rating Trends 2016.
Source:islamicfinance.de
World Economic Outlook Update: Subdued Demand, Diminished Prospects
In advanced economies, a modest and uneven recovery is expected to continue, with a gradual further narrowing of output gaps. The picture for emerging market and developing economies is diverse but in many cases challenging. The slowdown and rebalancing of the Chinese economy, lower commodity prices, and strains in some large emerging market economies will continue to weigh on growth prospects in 2016-17. The projected pickup in growth in the next two years-despite the ongoing slowdown in China—primarily reflects forecasts of a gradual improvement of growth rates in countries currently in economic distress, notably Brazil, Russia,, and some countries in the Middle East, though even this projected partial recovery could be frustrated by new economic or political shocks. view the World Economic Outlook Update: Subdued Demand, Diminished Prospects report
This has occurred despite the global population increasing by around 400 million people during that period. Meanwhile, the wealth of the richest 62 has increased by more than half a trillion dollars to $1.76tr. The report also shows how women are disproportionately affected by inequality-of the current '62', 53 are men and just nine are women.
Source: Oxfam
December 19, 2016--Global growth, currently estimated at 3.1 percent in 2015, is projected at 3.4 percent in 2016 and 3.6 percent in 2017. The pickup in global activity is projected to be more gradual than in the October 2015 World Economic Outlook (WEO), especially in emerging market and developing economies.
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