IMF Working paper-U.S. Dollar Dynamics: How Important Are Policy Divergence and FX Risk Premiums?
July 5, 2016--Summary: We investigate the drivers of dynamics of major U.S. FX bilaterals. We first construct a novel measure of FX risk premiums using Consensus exchange rate forecasts. We then use VAR analysis to show that (i) risk premium shocks play a key role in driving dynamics of the major U.S. FX bilaterals; (ii) longer-term interest differentials also matter, especially for the Canadian $ and the Euro; (iii) oil price shocks play a particularly important role for the Canadian $ (an oil exporter); and (iv) risk appetite shocks (e.g., VIX shocks) generally lead to U.S. dollar appreciation.
The importance of risk premium and longer-term interest differential shocks fit well with a simple theoretical model and are supported by recent event studies.
Source: IMF
Vanguard Attracts Record New Money as Investors Flock to Passive
July 5, 2016--Firm got $148 billion in inflows in first six months of 2016
Some rival managers struggle in competition for client cash
It,s another record for Vanguard Group Inc.
The firm, which has grown to become the world's largest mutual fund manager by offering low-cost investments, attracted $148 billion in new client money during the first six months of 2016, surpassing its previous first-half record of $140 billion set last year, a spokesman said in an e-mail on Tuesday.
Source: Bloomberg
ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis-Brexit not as bad as expected outside of UK
July 4, 2016--Inflows into gold ETPs of US$263mn on Friday 1st July were at their highest since inception, Brexit
has also driven large inflows into other safe haven assets such as silver and Swiss Franc.
More outflows from short GBP ETPs as investors take profit on Sterling depreciation
European stocks back to 2016 low triggers bargain-hunting in long European ex-UK equities
Source: ETF Securities
Macroprudential policy assessments-report released by the Committee on the Global Financial System
July 4, 2016--Central banks should take a holistic approach to assessing the value of policies aimed at safeguarding financial stability, the CGFS says in a report published today.
Entitled Experiences with the ex ante appraisal of macroprudential instruments, the report finds that gauging the net benefits of such instruments, for example by using stress tests or models, requires expertise in a range of areas from financial markets to monetary policy. Further, internal and external cooperation is key to building a full picture.
view the Experiences with the ex ante appraisal of macroprudential instruments report
Source: BIS
The 500 Tons of Gold That Show Global Rise in Investor Angst
July 4, 2016--Bullion holdings in ETFs extend surge after U.K.'s Brexit vote
Prices have rallied 27% this year with Fed seen holding rates
Global gold holdings have expanded by more than 500 metric tons since bottoming in January in a signal of investors' rising concern about slowing growth, a Federal Reserve that’s probably on hold and the ructions caused by Britain's vote to quit the European Union.
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin Transactions Values To Triple this Year-Reaching Over USD92Bn, As Brexit And Possible Trump Presidency Fuel Price Spikes
Exchanges Drive Growth As Retail Interest Wanes
July 4, 2016--A new study from Juniper Research has found that the total value of Bitcoin transactions is expected to exceed $92 billion this year, up from less than $27 billion in 2015.
The research found that transaction volumes continued to be concentrated overwhelmingly on the exchanges, with Bitcoin now trading at values almost 50% higher than at the beginning of the year.
According to the new research-The Future of Cryptocurrency-Deep Dive Data & Forecasting 2016-2021 the rise in values could be attributed to 3 key factors:Unc
Uncertainty over Brexit- the research argued that Bitcoin's value is to a significant extent dependent upon economic uncertainty and political instability as investors seek safe havens for their assets. Bitcoin's price rose in the weeks leading up to the referendum, dipped briefly but sharply when it appeared that Britain would vote to remain in the EU, before recovering when the true result became apparent.
Source: Juniper Research
Commodities: Silver Skyrockets Post-Brexit, Energy is Back!
July 1, 2016--Commodities are back!
While commodity performance in Q1 was promising, it was mainly precious metals and zinc that buoyed everything else.
Energy and base metals were relatively flat on the quarter, with uranium and natural gas having the biggest declines.
However, the game changed considerably in Q2. We now live in a post-Brexit world, where the real risk of further contagion in Europe is prompting investors to seek insurance policies.
Source: visualcapitalist.com
Infographic-The Decline of Coal in Three Charts
July 1, 2016--How coal went from hero to zero in just five short years.
There was a time in the not so distant past that coal was the unquestioned all-star of the energy mix.
Just over a decade ago, coal-fired power generated more than 50% of U.S. electricity.
Source: www.visualcapitalist.com
Completion of divestiture of International Securities Exchange Holdings
June 30, 2016--Deutsche Börse AG completed the sale of ISE to Nasdaq today. Nasdaq, Inc., acquired the International Securities Exchange Holdings, Inc., operator of three US equity options exchanges, and ISE's holding company, U.S. Exchange Holdings, Inc., for a total cash consideration of 1.1 billion US$ from Deutsche Börse AG.