BlackRock's Midyear Outlook & New Greenwich Global Study
August 2, 2017--The global expansion is chugging along, with an improved eurozone outlook in
particular; deflation fears and near-term political risks look to have faded; and financial market volatility is subdued.
We believe this provides fertile ground for modest gains in risk assets such as equities. Our key views:
Outlook debate: A mid-June gathering of some 90 BlackRock portfolio managers and executives featured vigorous debates on the drivers of low volatility, how to think about valuations and the outlook
for monetary policy and markets. We dissected key risks such as a snapback in government bond yields,
discussed how poor trading liquidity could aggravate any sell-offs in frothy pockets of credit markets,
and concluded that worries over a China slowdown are overstated in the near term.
The results of the 2nd annual Greenwich Associates Global ETF Study point to continued growth as more institutions adopt ETFs for the first time, and existing users find new applications for the funds.
Key Findings*
Institutional flows into ETFs is expected to grow to $300B annually by 2020
Total institutional fund flows into ETFs could increase as new institutions introduce these investment vehicles into their portfolios and existing users continue to increase allocations to ETFs.
Source: BlackRock
ULTUMUS-Global ETF Monitor
August 2, 2017--Americas
In a curious play and perhaps in response to Trump,s protectionist agenda, iShares will be listing a new Russell 1000 ETF in the US (AMCA). AMCA will track companies that earn most of their money through sales in the US homeland compared to other large- and mid-cap companies...
Asia
Big day in Korea.
Kookmin Bank, one of Korea's largest banks, has listed a new inverse ETF that gives the opposite return of the KOSDAQ 150 Futures Index (275750). The index is made up mostly of Korean tech stocks.
Seoul-based asset manager Mirae Asset has listed two new ETFs. The first (276000) tracks the MorningStar Global Upstream Natural Resources Index, which is made up of companies in "upstream" industries-energy, agriculture, metals, timber, water...
The second (275980) tracks the MorningStar Exponential Technologies Index, which is made up of tech stocks that Morningstar's research team thinks will grow...
Europe
Amundi will be cross-listing its USA Equity Multi Smart Allocation Scientific Beta ETF into Italy (SMTU). The smart beta ETF tracks an index with four subindexes, each of which represents one of the four major quant factors (momentum, volatility, value and size). The subindexes are produced by Scientific Beta...
Source: ULTUMUS-Financial Data Management
FSI Insights on policy implementation series launched; first papers focus on proportionality, cyber-risk
August 2, 2017--The Financial Stability Institute (FSI) today launched a new publication series, FSI Insights on policy implementation, to contribute to international discussions on a range of policy issues and implementation challenges faced by financial sector authorities.
The paper on proportionality explores the issue of how best to tailor regulatory requirements for different types of banks by comparing the approaches followed in six jurisdictions. It shows the range of approaches in terms of criteria and the thresholds used to differentiate banks, and also in terms of the regulatory standards that are subject to a proportional implementation. The paper notes that implementation of the proportionality strategy should respect prudential objectives and consider implications for the competitive environment.
The paper on cyber-risk explores regulatory and supervisory initiatives in some leading jurisdictions.
view the Proportionality in banking regulation: a cross-country comparison report
view the Regulatory approaches to enhance banks' cyber-security frameworks report
Source: BIS
Hold on to your seats: why Wall Street could head much higher
July 31, 2017--It is often said stocks must climb a wall of worry, and that seems to be the case with Wall Street breaking out to record highs while valuations appear high to many.
But as this note shows. relative to bond yields. stocks don't appear over valued and valuations seem far from levels that held prior to the four previous major market declines over the past forty years. Bond-equity valuations not yet in the danger zone
Source: betashares.com.au
Pimco becomes world's best selling active manager
July 31, 2017--Pimco became the best-selling active asset manager in the first half of this year, less than three years after the departure of star fund manager Bill Gross saw its total assets fall by a third.
But in a change of fortunes the bond specialist attracted almost $50bn to its funds in the first six months this year, the Financial Times reports.
Source: fundstrategy.co.uk
IMF-The Financing of Ideas and the Great Deviation
July 31, 2017--Summary:
Why did the Great Recession lead to such a slow recovery? A model was built where heterogeneous firms invest in physical and intangible capital, and can default on their debt. In case of default, intangible assets are harder to seize by creditors. Hence, intangible capital faces higher financing costs.
This differential is exacerbated in a financial crisis, when default is more likely and aggregate risk bears a higher premium. The resulting fall in intangible investment amplifies the crisis, and gradual intangible spillovers to other firms contribute to its persistence. Using panel data on Spanish manufacturing firms, I estimate the model matching firm-level moments regarding intangibles and financing. The model captures the extent and components of the Great Recession in Spanish manufacturing, whereas a standard model without endogenous intangible investment would miss more than half of the GDP fall. A policy of transfers conditional on firm age could speed up the recovery, as young firms tend to be more financially constrained, particularly regarding intangible investment. Conditioning transfers on firm size or subsidizing credit (as in current E.U. policy) appears to be less effective.
Source: IMF
Long Finance-Responsibility Without Power? The Governance Of Mutual Distributed Ledgers
July 31, 2017--Mutual Distributed Ledger (MDL, aka blockchain) technology is in an emergent phase. New applications are under development; new uses are being researched; new consortia are being formed to explore MDL applications.
Considering appropriate governance structures has had a lower priority so far, but trust in the increasingly popular systems will depend on their incorporating good governance principles. It was the aim of this study to identify those principles, in order to provide a roadmap for developers and users alike.
Source: Long Finance
ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis-Crude rally leads investors to take profit
July 31, 2017--The 6% rise in
crude oil over the last week has led to investors taking profits with outflows of US$53m
Selling long positions and buying short positions in EUR
against the USD has been a continued trend.
Precious metals saw minor inflows of US$19m after a run of outflows
The 6% rise in crude oil over the last week has led to investors taking profits with outflows of US$53m. This year there have been substantial inflows of US$350m into crude oil ETPs as investors trade the upper and lower end of the established US$40-55 trading range. Oil has been volatile, proving very sensitive to news on inventories in the US.
Source: etfsecurities.com
ULTUMUS-Global ETF Monitor
July 31, 2017--Asia
South Korean issuer NH Investment & Securities will be listing a new American IT tracker in South Korea (550041). At present, there is little English language material available on 550041. What is available suggests it will track American tech giants through a Singaporean index, the SGX U.S. Technology Enterprises Index. 550041 will charge 1.20%...
Taishin Securities, the ETF arm of the Taiwanese banking major Taishin International Bank, will be listing three new ETFs in Taipai in August...
Europe
iShares is listing a Euro denominated version of its US floating rate bond ETF in London (FLOE). FLOE will track investment-grade floating rate bonds issued by US, Canadian and Australian businesses...
Source: ULTUMUS-Financial Data Management
ETFGI reports assets invested in Active ETFs/ETPs listed globally have increased 30.5 percent in the first half of 2017
July 31, 2017--ETFGI, a leading independent research and consultancy firm on trends in the global ETF/ETP ecosystem, reported today that assets invested in active ETFs/ETPs listed globally have increased by 30.5% in the first half of 2017, according to ETFGI's June 2017 global active ETF and ETP industry insights report.
YTD through end of June 2017, active ETF/ETP assets have increased by 30.5% from US$43.46 Bn to reach a new record of US$56.74 Bn.
Source: ETFGI