IMF-Increasing Resilience to Large and Volatile Capital Flows: The Role of Macroprudential Policies-Case Studies
September 13, 2017--View the IMF Policy paper-Increasing Resilience to Large and Volatile Capital Flows: The Role of Macroprudential Policies-Case Studies.
Source: IMF
Global Talent Crisis Lies at Heart of Inequality Debate
September 13, 2017--The Human Capital Report 2017 finds countries' failure to adequately develop people's talents is underpinning inequality by depriving people of opportunity and access to a broad base of good-quality work
Investments in education often fail due to inadequate focus on lifelong learning, failure to develop high-skilled opportunities and a mismatch of skills required for entering and succeeding in the labour market
With only 62% of the world's human capital stock fully developed, the United States and Germany are among the best-performing nations in a top 10 dominated by smaller European countries
Efforts to fully realize people's economic potential-in countries at all stages of economic development- are falling short due to ineffective deployment of skills throughout the workforce, development of future skills and adequate promotion of ongoing learning for those already in employment.
view the World Economic Forum-The Global Human Capital Report 2017
Source: WEF (World Economic Forum)
ETF Securities-Precious Metals Monitor--August 2017-Gold & Silver: Risk-Off Sentiment Amid Volatility Adds Further Support
September 13, 2017--The macroeconomic environment year to date has been positive for gold and silver with the US dollar dropping nearly 10%, interest rates falling to lows not seen since November 2016, and inflation remaining persistently elevated.
This environment, while likely to remain supportive for gold, has been met with the catalyst of event risk driven demand. This August was full of events traditionally benefitting metals including geopolitical tensions with North Korea, political uncertainty in Washington, and static monetary policy as evidenced by the dovish commentary from both Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium (pushing market expectations for another US rate hike in 2017 down to 33%). These event risks may continue to be the key driver for gold and silver in the short term as investors attempt to navigate risk-off headlines and heightened volatility.
Source: ETF Securities
OPEC-Monthly Oil Market Report September 2017
September 12, 2017--Oil Market Highlights
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket rose for the second-consecutive month in August to average $49.60/b,
representing a gain of $2.67/b or 6%. Year-to-date, the Basket was 30.9% higher at $49.73/b. Crude futures
prices also saw gains with ICE Brent increasing 5.5% to $51.87/b and NYMEX WTI up 3.0% at $48.06/b.
Year-to-date, crude futures prices were more than 20% higher. During the week of 29 August money managers cut WTI futures and options net long positions by 105,671 contracts to 147,303 lots, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. Money managers slightly reduced Brent futures and options net length contracts by 1,296 to 416,551 lots during the same week.
World Economy
World economic growth has been revised up for 2017 to 3.5% from 3.4%, while the growth forecast for 2018
remains unchanged at 3.4%. OECD growth has performed better-than-anticipated in the current year-
particularly the Euro-zone and to some extent in the US – and is now forecast to grow by 2.2% in 2017 and
2.0% in 2018.
Source: OPEC
PWC-Live digital or die-The digital challenges that ETF sponsors and service providers must confront
September 12, 2017--Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) continue to experience significant growth and innovation. We expect that continued
advances in digital technologies will significantly impact ETF
sponsors, service providers and other participants.
We foresee technological change driving significant impacts upon ETF operations, distribution and products. These changes will also impact a firm's profit margins, regulatory risks, cyber security, and customer interactions. There is no question that successful firms will need to evolve rapidly to keep ahead of their competition.
This paper leverages the results of our ETF global survey and includes our insights on how the ETF industry will be impacted by FinTech over the next few years.
Source: PWC
ETF Securities-ETF Outlook September 2017
September 12, 2017--Bond balloon, not bubble
Artificially low market volatility
Across asset classes, volatility has moderated, and the underlying macro landscape has improved on a global basis, prompting greater investor optimism.
Political uncertainty has also moderated, with two key exceptions: the Trump administration and the Brexit negotiations. Risk and the implied complacency of investors that low volatility presumes are key issues in financial markets, the current 'risk-on' environment where equity markets are reaching record highs looks increasingly untenable.
Source: etfsecurities.com
Infographic-Market Complexity Could Trigger the Next Crash
September 12, 2017--Complex systems are all around us.
By one definition, a complex system is any system that features a large number of interacting components (agents, processes, etc.) whose aggregate activity is nonlinear (not derivable from the summations of the activity of individual components) and typically exhibits hierarchical self-organization under selective pressures.
Source: visualcapitalist.com
Basel III monitoring results published by the Basel Committee
September 12, 2017--All banks meet Basel III minimum and target CET1 capital requirements
All G-SIBs meet both fully phased-in liquidity requirements
The Basel Committee today published the results of its latest Basel III monitoring exercise based on data as of 31 December 2016. The Committee established a rigorous reporting process to regularly review the implications of the Basel III standards for banks, and it has published the results of previous exercises since 2012. For the first time, the report provides not only global averages but also a regional breakdown for many key metrics.
view the Basel III Monitoring Report
Source: BIS
End of the Oil Age: Not Whether But When
September 12, 2017-A transportation revolution is underway that could completely transform the oil market in the coming decades.
When oil prices suddenly halved from over $100 a barrel in 2014, our IMF study concluded that supply-side factors such as the emergence of shale and new technologies would be a key force keeping oil prices "lower for longer." More recent studies suggest that other new technologies, such as the spread of electric cars and solar electricity generation, could even more profoundly affect the oil market and the long-term demand for oil.
Source: IMF
Global Financial Centres Index 22-Despite Brexit Uncertainty London Remains On Top
September 11, 2017--Today Z/Yen publishes the twenty-second Global Financial Centres Index (GFCI 22). Z/Yen are delighted to be working in collaboration with the China Development Institute (CDI). The GFCI rates 92 financial centres.
The main headlines are shown below.
There is an overall drop in confidence amongst the leading centres. Of the top 25 centres, 23 fell in the ratings and only two rose. At the lower end of the table, 20 of the 25 lowest rated centres actually rose in the GFCI ratings. There is little change in the top five positions. London and New York remain in first and second places. Interestingly, despite the ongoing Brexit negotiations, London only fell two points, the smallest decline in the top ten centres. Hong Kong has moved just ahead of Singapore into third-only two points ahead on a scale of 1,000. Tokyo remains in fifth.
view the The Global Financial Centres Index 22-September 2017
Source: Long Finance