IMF Working paper-Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth in Oil-Exporting Countries : Does the Size of Government Matter?
December 22, 2017--
Summary:
This paper examines the impact of government size on how output and government expenditure respond to oil price shocks in 28 oil-exporting countries between 1990 and 2016. Results suggest that if the size of government (measured by government expenditure-to-(non-oil) GDP ratio) is larger, non-oil output growth, in response to a positive oil price shock, tends to be greater and output volatility higher.
Furthermore, an unexpected increase in oil price leads to expansion in government expenditure and the expansion is larger, the larger is the government. This paper provides empirical evidence for direct correlation between government size and macroecnomic stability in oil-exporting countries. The findings imply that fiscal consolidation and economic diversification help to narrow down economic exposure to exogenous oil price shocks and reduce volatility in non-oil output.
Source: IMF
ETFGI reports Active ETFs and ETPs have gathered 24 billion US dollars in net new assets in the first 11 months of 2017
December 21, 2017--ETFGI, a leading independent research and consultancy firm on trends in the global ETF/ETP ecosystem, reported today Active ETFs and ETPs have gathered 24 billion US dollars in net new assets in the first 11 months of 2017.
According to ETFGI's November 2017 Active ETF and ETP industry insights report, an annual paid-for research subscription service, assets invested in Active ETFs and ETPs grew by 53.4% year-to-date, the greatest annual increase since 2009 when markets recovered following the 2008 financial crisis, and an increase of 11.7% on the previous record of US$65.77 Bn set in October 2017.
Source: ETFGI
ETFGI reports Smart Beta ETFs and ETPs have gathered 69 billion US dollars in net new assets in the first 11 months of 2017
December 21, 2017--ETFGI, a leading independent research and consultancy firm on trends in the global ETF/ETP ecosystem, reported today Smart Beta ETFs and ETPs have gathered 69 billion US dollars in net new assets in the first 11 months of 2017.
According to ETFGI's November 2017 Smart Beta ETF and ETP industry insights report, an annual paid-for research subscription service, assets invested in Smart Beta ETFs and ETPs grew by 30.1% year-to-date, the greatest annual increase since 2009 when markets recovered following the 2008 financial crisis, and an increase of 3.8% on the previous record of US$661.74 Bn set in October 2017.
Source: ETFGI
OFR-Updated Bank Data Show Rising Systemic Importance of Asian Banks
December 21, 2017--New data on the world's largest banks show the increasing systemic importance of Asian banks. The data also show that U.S. banks' systemic footprint still dominates the global totals.
Indeed, eight U.S. banks are still considered global systemically important banks (G-SIBs). G-SIBs must hold more capital than other banks. Among the U.S. banks in the tier below G-SIBs, the U.S. operations of a few foreign banks rank as the most systemically important.
Source: OFR (Office of Financial Research)
December 2017 Eurekahedge Report
December 19, 2017--Highlights from this month's report
Hedge funds were up 7.27% for the year, posting better performance compared to a modest 3.68% gains last year. Asset base for the industry grew by US$188.2 billion in 2017, with US$94.7 billion of the gains in assets attributed to investor inflows and US$93.5 billion attributed to performance-based gains.
This compares with an AUM contraction of US$20.0 billion in 2016 where investor redemptions stood at US$55.1 billion while performance-based gains came in at US$35.1 billion.
Almost 76% of hedge fund managers have posted positive returns in 2017, their highest proportion on record since 2013. Around 29% of the managers have posted gains exceeding 10% this year while around 6% of the managers have posted losses exceeding 10%.
Source: Eurekahedge
FT-Exchange traded funds: a review of 2017
December 19, 2017--It is increasingly challenging for entrants to build profitable operations
Record new cash inflows have poured into the exchange traded fund industry for four consecutive years, a honeypot that is attracting asset managers worldwide.
Forty-four fund companies launched ETFs for the first time in 2017 in spite of mounting evidence that it is becoming increasingly ...
Source: FT.com
The Most Overhyped Sectors in Tech, According to Entrepreneurs
December 15, 2017--What founders think about emerging technologies
Founders are at the very ground level, and their pursuits have a ripple effect on the entire startup ecosystem.
As a result, how entrepreneurs think about different subsectors within tech is of utmost importance. Not only do their perceptions influence what projects they themselves choose to build, but how founders allocate their time and energy may also be a useful gauge of where future economic potential lies.
Source: visualcapitalist.com
Global IPO Market Bounces Back in 2017
December 15, 2017--In the wake of all time market highs, global IPO issuance bounced back in 2017, reversing a trend of decline in the previous two years as the outlook for global economies improved. Global IPOs raised $141 billion in 2017, up 33% from 2016's subdued levels and above the $138 billion ten-year median.
The rebound in IPO activity was led by issuance in North America (24% of proceeds; +109% y/y) and Europe (28%; +44%), thanks to large deals like Snap, Allied Irish Bank and Pirelli. While the financial sector held its lead with 21% share of proceeds, 2017 saw more diversified issuance. In particular, activity from the tech sector picked up strongly in 2017 (proceeds rose 122%). Tech IPOs were also among the best performers, including strong returns from Roku, Foxconn and China Literature. Global performance was steady, returning 15% ex-China thanks to continued strength from US and Asia Pacific IPOs.
Source: Renaissance Capital
DECPG Global Weekly
December 15, 2017--Taking Stock
U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates; core inflation edged down in November. As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 1.25-1.5 percent at its December meeting, citing continued growth and strong job creation.
Meanwhile, core consumer price inflation-which excludes food and energy prices-edged down to 1.7 percent (y/y) in November, from 1.8 percent in October (Figure 1), indicating that underlying inflation remains subdued.
ECB kept monetary policy unchanged; Euro Area composite PMI hit an almost 7-year high in December. At its December meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) left the main refinancing rate and the interest rates on the lending and deposit facilities at zero, 0.25 percent, and negative 0.4 percent, respectively-in line with expectations.
Source: World Bank
IMF Working Papers-A Model to Assess the Probabilities of Growth, Fiscal, and Financial Crises
December 14, 2017--Summary:
This paper summarizes a suite of early warning models to assess the probabilities of growth, fiscal, and financial crises in advanced economies and emerging markets. We estimate separate signal-extraction models for each type of crisis and sample of countries, and we use our results to generate "histories of vulnerabilities" for countries, regions, and the world.
For the global financial crisis, our models report that vulnerabilities in advanced economies were rooted in the bursting of leveraged bubbles, while vulnerabilities in emerging markets stemmed from lengthy booms in credit and asset prices combined with growing weaknesses in the corporate and external sectors.
Source: IMF