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DECPG Global Weekly
June 22, 2018--TAKING STOCK
U.S. composite PMI eased in June; housing starts rose sharply in May
Euro Area composite PMI rebounded in June; consumer confidence fell
Trade disputes escalated
Japan posted first trade deficit in 3 months in May
EMDE currencies and stock markets weakened
U.S. composite PMI eased in June; housing starts rose sharply in May. The preliminary reading of the composite purchasing mangers' index (PMI) for the United States came in at 56 in June, down from a 3-year high of 56.6 in May (a reading above 50 signals expansion).
Euro Area composite PMI rebounded in June; consumer confidence fell. The Euro Area's flash PMI for June came in at 54.8, above market expectations and up from 54.1 in May. The services PMI rose to 55 in June from 53.8 in May whereas the manufacturing PMI slowed to 55 from 55.5 in May.
Estimating Cyber Risk for the Financial Sector
June 22, 2018--Cyber risk has emerged as a significant threat to the financial system. An IMF staff modeling exercise estimates that average annual losses to financial institutions from cyber-attacks could reach a few hundred billion dollars a year, eroding bank profits and potentially threatening financial stability.
Recent cases show that the threat is real. Successful attacks have already resulted in data breaches in which thieves gained access to confidential information, and fraud, such as the theft of $500 million from the Coincheck cryptocurrency exchange. And there is the threat that a targeted institution could be left unable to operate.
Not surprisingly, surveys consistently show that risk managers and other executives at financial institutions worry most about cyber-attacks...
IMF Working Papers-Cyber Risk for the Financial Sector: A Framework for Quantitative Assessment
June 22, 2018--Summary:
Cyber risk has emerged as a key threat to financial stability, following recent attacks on financial institutions. This paper presents a novel documentation of cyber risk around the world for financial institutions by analyzing the different types of cyber incidents (data breaches, fraud and business disruption) and identifying patterns using a variety of datasets.
The other novel contribution that is outlined is a quantitative framework to assess cyber risk for the financial sector. The framework draws on a standard VaR type framework used to assess various types of stability risk and can be easily applied at the individual country level. The framework is applied in this paper to the available cross-country data and yields illustrative aggregated losses for the financial sector in the sample across a variety of scenarios ranging from 10 to 30 percent of net income.
IMF Working Papers-The Globalization of Farmland: Theory and Empirical Evidence
June 22, 2018--Summary:
This paper is the first to provide both theoretical and empirical evidence of farmland globalization whereby international investors directly acquire large tracts of agricultural land in other countries.
A theoretical framework explains the geography of farmland acquisitions as a function of cross-country differences in technology, endowments, trade costs, and land governance. An empirical test of the model using global data on transnational deals shows that international farmland investments are on the aggregate likely motivated by re-exports to investor countries rather than to world markets. This contrasts with traditional foreign direct investment patterns where horizontal as opposed to vertical FDI dominates.
view the IMF Working Papers-The Globalization of Farmland: Theory and Empirical Evidence
Basel Committee issues progress report on banks' implementation of the Principles for effective risk data aggregation and reporting
June 21, 2018--The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision today published its latest progress report on banks' implementation of the Principles for effective risk data aggregation and reporting. The Principles, issued in January 2013, aim to strengthen banks' risk data aggregation and risk reporting with a view to improving their risk management, decision-making processes and resolvability.
The progress report is based on the results of a self-assessment survey completed by authorities with supervisory responsibility for global systemically important banks (G-SIBs). The report reviews G-SIBs' progress in implementing the Principles in 2017. A previous progress report, published in March 2017, assessed implementation during 2016.
Mystery seller dumps shares in major emerging markets ETF
June 20, 2018--Someone just threw the towel in on emerging markets.
VanEck's flagship $4.5bn local-currency emerging markets bond ETF suffered a sudden sale of nearly 19m shares worth $321m in one giant block trade this morning, indicating that a single investor probably pulled the plug after a torrid time for the market.
The $3 Trillion Thumb on the Bond-Market Scale
June 20, 2018--The $3.2 trillion corporate pension industry has quietly been throwing its weight around the bond market.
Managers of the huge retirement funds, by most accounts, are in the midst of a big shift into bonds. The move makes perfect sense, given that the plans are as well-funded as they've been in years.
IMF Departmental Papers/Policy Papers-Opening Up in the Caucasus and Central Asia: Policy Frameworks to Support Regional and Global Integration
June 19, 2018--Summary:
The Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) countries are at an important juncture in their economic transition. Following significant economic progress during the 2000s, recent external shocks have revealed the underlying vulnerabilities of the current growth model.
Lower commodity prices, weaker remittances, and slower growth in key trading partners reduced CCA growth, weakened external and fiscal balances, and raised public debt. the financial sector was also hit hard by large foreign exchange losses. while commodity prices have recovered somewhat since late 2014, to boost its economic potential, the region needs to find new growth drivers, diversify away from natural resources, remittances, and public spending, and generate much stronger private sector-led activity.
The Eurekahedge Report-June 2018
June 19, 2018--Highlights from this month's report
Hedge funds posted their second consecutive month of gains, up 0.33% in May and 0.48% year-to-date. Performance has varied sharply with small to medium sized hedge funds delivering gains while funds managing in excess of US$500 million in assets seeing losses of 0.34% with their sub-group of billion dollar hedge funds declining 0.88% in May.
Total hedge fund assets grew by US$26.4 billion over the past five months, which compares with a growth in total AUM of US$92.9 billion over the same period last year. Investors have been selective in their allocations across strategies with long/short equities and macro hedge funds seeing stronger subscriptions year-to-date.
Assets under management for CTAs have shrunk by 7.13% in 2018 as underlying managers posted their fourth consecutive month of investor redemptions with net outflows totalling US$8.4 billion.
Flow Traders releases May 2018 ETP market statistics
June 18, 2018--Flow Traders N.V. ("Flow Traders") (Euronext: FLOW), today releases the monthly ETP (Exchange Traded Products) market statistics for May 2018. This refers to general market observations only.
In May 2018, the total Global ETP Assets under Management (AuM) rose to US$ 4,986 bn from US$ 4,887 bn in April 2018 (+2% month-on-month, source: BlackRock ETP Landscape May 2018).
That translates into a total Global ETP AuM in euro terms of € 4,271 bn in May 2018 versus
€ 4,045 bn in April 2018, with an EUR/USD FX rate of 1.1673 (rate end May 2018).
The average VIX for the month of May 2018 reached 14.12 (versus 18.27 in April 2018), with a low of 12.53 (versus 15.25 as a low in April 2018) and a high of 17.02 (versus 23.62 in April 2018) (Source: Bloomberg).