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DECPG Global Monthly-June 2018
June 27, 2018--Overview
After reaching 3.1 percent in 2017 and 2018, global growth is expected to moderate as global economic slack dissipates, some major central banks remove policy accommodation, and the recovery in commodity exporters matures.
The recovery in regions with a large number of commodity exporters is expected to continue this year, but per capita income growth remains low in many countries.
The risks of disorderly financial market movements and escalating trade protectionism have increased in 2018.
Special Focus: Long-term Growth Prospects: Downgraded No More?
Consensus forecasts for long-term growth have recently stabilized after a series of downgrades since 2010.
Although this development could be a sign that the global economy is experiencing a healthy expansion, long-term forecasts are often overly optimistic.
These forecasts are still above potential growth estimates, and adverse structural forces continue to overshadow long-term growth prospects.
Autonomous Vehicles Will Clog City Centres unless Lawmakers Step Up, Says Boston Study
June 27, 2018--Shared autonomous vehicles will reduce the number of cars and overall travel times in cities but potentially worsen traffic and increase travel times in downtown areas, a World Economic Forum study suggests
To avoid pockets of increased congestion caused by switching from mass transit, state and local lawmakers must put forth policies and incentives that maximize the benefits of autonomous vehicles
Investor Confidence Declined in June by 2.1 Points to 101.7
June 26, 2018--State Street Global Exchange today released the results of the State Street Investor Confidence Index(R) (ICI) for June 2018.
The Global Investor Confidence Index decreased to 101.7, down 2.1 points from May's revised reading of 103.8. The decline in sentiment was driven by a 10.8 drop in the European ICI to 90.8 along with the 0.8 point decrease in the Asian ICI to 102.6. By contrast, the North American ICI rose by 0.8 points to 105.7.
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Indeed, as we've seen with his overturning of the forced separation of children from their asylum seeking parents at the Mexican border (a ploy which failed to get Democrats to agree on a bill to fund the Mexican Wall), Trump has the capacity to back down if he senses it's a losing fight. ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis-OPEC injects volatility into oil markets Oil prices rally close to 6 per cent intraday on Friday after Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC's) lack of transparency sent markets wondering about what levels of production increases will they will see this year from the group. Seize the day to secure sustained growth, BIS says DECPG Global Weekly U.S. composite PMI eased in June; housing starts rose sharply in May. The preliminary reading of the composite purchasing mangers' index (PMI) for the United States came in at 56 in June, down from a 3-year high of 56.6 in May (a reading above 50 signals expansion). Euro Area composite PMI rebounded in June; consumer confidence fell. The Euro Area's flash PMI for June came in at 54.8, above market expectations and up from 54.1 in May. The services PMI rose to 55 in June from 53.8 in May whereas the manufacturing PMI slowed to 55 from 55.5 in May.
June 25, 2018--Concerns about such investments' performance persist despite mounting evidence to the contrary
Despite mounting evidence to the contrary, performance worries still keep advisers from implementing investment strategies that take into account environmental, social and governance concerns.
June 25, 2018--Interbank offered rates (IBORs) play a central role in financial markets, and act as reference rates to hundreds of trillions of dollars in notional amount of derivatives and trillions of dollars in bonds, loans, securitizations and deposits. The dependence on IBORs by all sectors of the financial markets is changing, however.
There are now real concerns about the sustainability of certain IBORs due to a significant decline in activity in the unsecured bank funding market that they are supposed to represent. Given the limited number of actual transactions, and with banks reluctant to provide submissions based on judgement, the viability of certain IBORs is now in doubt.
June 25, 2018--Week in Review
It was a down week for global equities in general, thanks in large part to US President Trump's threats to impose even more tariffs on Chinese and European imports. So far at least, however, what's apparent is that countries are not bowing to Trump's threats.
That said, markets are still assuming (with some reason in my view) that some form of negotiated settlement will eventually be reached, or that at least escalation won't continue much longer.
June 25, 2018--OPEC announcement drove prices higher, but we believe this is the beginning of a very volatile period for oil.
Silver sees outflows of US$107mn last week, the largest since September 2017.
Trade war jitters send industrial metal ETP demand lower.
June 24, 2018--Policymakers can maintain the current economic upswing beyond the short term by tackling structural reforms, rebuilding monetary and fiscal policy space to react to future threats and encouraging prompt implementation of regulatory reforms, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) writes in its Annual Economic Report.
In its flagship economic report, the BIS describes how the global economy is coming off a vintage year for growth with low inflation-unusual so late in the expansion. The gains are in no small measure the fruit of a decade of extraordinary monetary policies, but these have also contributed to vulnerabilities. Although the path to sustainable growth underpinned by price and financial stability is quite narrow, the right policy mix can help fend off material risks to the outlook.
June 22, 2018--TAKING STOCK
U.S. composite PMI eased in June; housing starts rose sharply in May
Euro Area composite PMI rebounded in June; consumer confidence fell
Trade disputes escalated
Japan posted first trade deficit in 3 months in May
EMDE currencies and stock markets weakened
