Global ETF News Older than One Year
The World Economy: Synchronized Slowdown, Precarious Outlook
October 15, 2019--The global economy is in a synchronized slowdown and we are, once again, downgrading growth for 2019 to 3 percent, its slowest pace since the global financial crisis.
Growth continues to be weakened by rising trade barriers and increasing geopolitical tensions. We estimate that the US-China trade tensions will cumulatively reduce the level of global GDP by 0.8 percent by 2020. Growth is also being weighed down by country-specific factors in several emerging market economies, and by structural forces, such as low productivity growth and aging demographics in advanced economies.
In the October World Economic Outlook, we are projecting a modest improvement in global growth to 3.4 percent in 2020, another downward revision of 0.2 percent from our April projections. However, unlike the synchronized slowdown, this recovery is not broad-based and remains precarious.
view moreview the World Economic Outlook, October 2019 Global Manufacturing Downturn, Rising Trade Barriers
Source: IMF
FSB updates on market fragmentation work
October 14, 2019--The Financial Stability Board (FSB) today published an update on its work on market fragmentation. The update has been delivered to G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors for their meeting in Washington D.C. later this this week.
In its June report on market fragmentation, the FSB identified four areas for further work to address market fragmentation: (i) deference; (ii) pre-positioning of capital and liquidity; (iii) regulatory and supervisory coordination and information-sharing; and (iv) market fragmentation as part of the evaluation of reforms, starting with the FSB's ongoing "too-big-to-fail" evaluation.
Source: FSB
Gold-backed ETFs surge to fresh high
October 13, 2019--The price of gold has risen 17.5 per cent this year to $1,507 an ounce, breaking above $1,550 an ounce in September 2019 for the first time since April 2013.
Source: FT.com
Global Banks May Grow More Vulnerable to a Dollar Disruption
October 11, 2019--When a Mexican airline buys Brazilian airplanes, it's likely to finance the purchase with a US dollar loan obtained from a non-US bank. That's just one example of the dollar's outsize role in international financial transactions between non-US counterparts.
What happens if non-US banks suddenly find themselves short of dollars? That was the case during the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, when US financial firms were reluctant to lend dollars to their foreign counterparts. To prevent the collapse of the global financial system, the Federal Reserve provided more than $500 billion in emergency funds to overseas central banks, which could then on-lend the money to their dollar-starved home-country banks.
Source: IMF
IMF Working Paper-Macroeconomic Effects of Reforms on Three Diverse Oil Exporters: Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UK
Summary:
We build and estimate open economy two-bloc DSGE models to study the transmission and impact of shocks in Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom. After accounting for country-specific fiscal and monetary sectors, we estimate their key policy and structural parameters.
Our findings suggest that not only has output responded differently to shocks due to differing levels of diversification and structural and policy settings, but also the responses to fiscal consolidation differ: Russia would benefit from a smaller state foot-print, while in Saudi Arabia, unless this is accompanied by structural reforms that remove rigidities, output would fall. We also find that lower oil prices need not be bad news given more oil-intensive production structures. However, lower oil prices have hurt these oil producers as their public finances depend heavily on oil, among other factors. Productivity gains accompanied by ambitious structural reforms, along with fiscal and monetary reforms could support these economies to achieve better outcomes when oil prices fall, including via diversifying exports.
Source: IMF
Pension Policies Must Keep Up with Rapidly Aging Societies, says World Bank
October 10, 2019-New Publication Presents Evidence to Further Understanding of Pension Reform Options
A new publication on pension reform examines nonfinancial defined contribution (NDC) pension schemes as an approach to help policymakers meet the challenges brought on by rapidly aging populations and the changing nature of work, says the World Bank.
In a world in which working lives will be increasingly longer, and demands for social care services will expand, pension systems will need to be reformed to ensure workers are protected and do not fall into poverty in old age.
Titled "Progress and Challenges of Nonfinancial Defined Contribution Pension Schemes", this publication brings together evidence on NDCs pension schemes and reforms more broadly to bear on today's labor market. NDC is a type of public pension system in which workers pay contributions to finance the benefits of current retirees, similar to traditional public pension schemes. However, unlike the latter, the NDC approach factors in automatic adjustments based on demographic changes, a key advantage given the increased aging and decreased fertility in many societies today.
Source: World Bank
Report sets out governance of key OTC derivatives data elements
October 9, 2019--A new report identifies key criteria, functions and bodies for the governance arrangements for a set of critical data elements for over-the-counter (OTC) derivative transactions reported to trade repositories, excluding the Unique Transaction Identifier (UTI) and the Unique Product Identifier (UPI).
The report, Governance arrangements for critical OTC derivatives data elements (other than UTI and UPI), published by the Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures (CPMI) and the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO), is a further step towards fulfilling the Group of 20's commitment to report all OTC derivatives contracts to trade repositories.
Source: BIS
US-China trade war may cost US$700 billion by 2020 in synchronised global slowdown, new IMF chief says
October 8, 2019--Global growth rate this year is expected to slow to lowest rate in a decade, new IMF head Kristalina Georgieva says
Global corporate debt at risk of default in event of global downturn would be higher than during global financial crisis, the economist warns
The trade war between China and the United States could cost an increasingly fractured global economy about US$700 billion, or 0.8 per cent of gross domestic product, by 2020, Kristalina Georgieva said in her maiden speech as International Monetary Fund chief on Tuesday.
Source: scmp.com
Bassanese Bites: On the brink
October 8, 2019--Global Markets
Last week provided further tangible signs that the trade-induced slowdown in the global economy was finally filtering through to the United States, which seemingly should make US President Trump more prepared to strike a deal with China sometime soon.
Adding to the trade angst last week was the World Trade Organisation’s decision to let the US impose tariffs on EU aircraft imports-owing to the latter's unlawful Airbus subsidies.
In my view, if these festering trade tensions are not resolved soon, a global recession-and ugly bear market-awaits us by early 2020. The stakes are now that high. The world's 4th largest economy-Germany-is now in recession, with factory orders slumping further overnight.
Source: BetaShares
Global Value Chains Have Spurred Growth but Momentum Is Flagging
October 8, 2019--Report Shows Path for Developing Countries to Achieve Better Growth Outcomes
In an era of slowing trade and growth, developing countries can achieve better outcomes for their citizens through reforms that boost their participation in global value chains. These reforms can help them expand from commodity exports to basic manufacturing, while ensuring that economic benefits are shared more widely across society, a new World Bank Group report concludes
The World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains marks the World Bank Group's first trade'focused development report since the late 1980s. It finds that global value chains have powered an economic transformation ever since, allowing the poorest countries to quickly climb the development ladder. Such chains enable developing countries to specialize and grow wealthier without having to build whole industries from scratch.