Global ETF News Older than One Year
BIS Working paper-The dollar, bank leverage and real economic activity: an evolving relationship
March 17, 2020--Focus
The paper studies how financial conditions affect real economic activity. It examines, in particular, the relationship between the role of the dollar exchange rate and indicators compiled from surveys of corporate purchasing activity around the world, as well as indicators of global trade growth. A special focus is on how this relationship has evolved since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) compared with the pre-crisis period.
Contribution
Financial conditions affect real economic activity, and this relationship has changed since the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-09, not least because of significant changes that have taken place in the pattern of financial intermediation. Our paper contributes to the literature examining the greater role of the dollar as a determinant of global economic activity. It sheds light on this issue by examining how changes in the financial sector since the GFC have influenced the empirical relationship between global purchasing managers' indices, world trade and indicators of global financial conditions, with a special focus on the broad dollar exchange rate index.
Findings
We find that the relationship between financial market variables and real economic activity has changed since the GFC.
Source: BIS
Bassanese Bites: Feeling sick
March 16, 2020--Global Markets
Last week was one to tell your grandchildren about. And for the younger people around the market, you've now been blooded with an example of just how volatile and cruel the equity market can be. Each generation gets its own meltdown it seems and and now it's the millennials turn.
It's why equities outperform cash and bonds over the long-run-you are getting paid to endure the often wild ride!
But this is one for the record books-we've now had the fastest descent into a US bear market (20% decline from peak) in history, with the S&P 500 down 26.7% within 18 trading days at its low point last Thursday. We’ve also seen broader liquidation and deleveraging develop, with yields on even government bonds rising last week. Credit spreads have naturally widened also, with a move to cash also hurting gold.
Source: betashares.com.au
Point of No Returns-A ranking of 75 of the world's asset managers approaches to responsible investment
March 15, 2020--Crises in the natural world have reached a critical level, while global inequality and human rights violations remain widespread and rife. Inaction threatens the very existence of human society. Tackling these challenges requires an overhaul of the global economy.
Yet businesses and financial organisations continue to seek short-term returns without accounting for the externalities of their decisions-with devastating long-term impacts on people and the planet.
It is in this context that we examine 75 of the most influential asset managers worldwide on responsible investment governance, climate change, biodiversity and human rights.
Source: shareaction.org
Bitcoin Drops To Lowest Point In A Year
March 13, 2020--Despite a recent bounce, bitcoin dropped to below $4,000 early on Friday (March 13), according to a report by CoinDesk.
It reached $3,867, which was the lowest level seen since March 25 of last year. It has since recovered from that low.
Bitcoin is down over $2,000 from a high of around $8,000 early on Thursday (March 12). The cryptocurrency now has a 27 percent loss YTD, even though it gained 46 percent last month and was trading at $10,500.
Bitcoin briefly overtook gold, but that changed on March 13-gold now has a 7.5 percent YTD gain.
Source: pymnts.com
IMF Working Paper-r minus g negative: Can We Sleep More Soundly?
March 13, 2020--Summary:
Contrary to the traditional assumption of interest rates on government debt exceeding economic growth, negative interest-growth differentials have become prevalent since the global financial crisis. As these differentials are a key determinant of public debt dynamics, can we sleep more soundly, despite high government debts?
Our paper undertakes an empirical analysis of interestgrowth differentials, using the largest historical database on average effective government borrowing costs for 55 countries over up to 200 years. We document that negative differentials have occurred more often than not, in both advanced and emerging economies, and have often persisted for long historical stretches. Moreover, differentials are no higher prior to sovereign defaults than in normal times. Marginal (rather than average) government borrowing costs often rise abruptly and sharply, but just prior to default. Based on these results, our answer is: not really.
view the IMF
Source: IMF
IMF Working Paper-Systemic Risk Modeling: How Theory Can Meet Statistics
The empirical model uses stock market and CDS spreads data to estimate a multivariate density of equity returns and to compute the expected equity return for each bank, conditional on a bad macro-outcome. Theses "cross-sectional" moments are used to re-calibrate the theoretical model and estimate the importance of the Minsky cycle of optimism in driving systemic risk.
Source: IMF
IMF Working Paper-Riding the Yield Curve: Risk Taking Behavior in a Low Interest Rate Environment
We provide evidence that non-linearities arise from hedging strategies of investors exposed to interest rate risk. Capital losses are amplified when interest rates increase and risk averse investors have taken positions on instruments with longer maturity, expecting instead interest rates to revert back to their historical average.
Source: IMF
Bitcoin plunges in worsening crypto rout
The largest digital currency at one point tumbled to US$5,705.31, though the move eased slightly to trade down 23 per cent at $6,068 as of 7:37 a.m. in New York, according to Bloomberg pricing. The wider Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index slumped 25 per cent, with Ether, XRP and Litecoin also plunging.
Source: bnnbloomberg.ca
IEA-Oil Market Report-March 2020-Global oil demand expected to decline as the impact of the new coronavirus spreads around the world
We assume that oil demand returns to close to normal in 2H20. In this Report we provide a Low Case and a High Case detailing weaker and stronger outlooks, respectively.
Global oil supply fell by 580 kb/d in February as production from Libya slowed to a trickle. At 100 mb/d, output was virtually flat on a year ago, with non-OPEC gains of 2.4 mb/d offsetting declines from OPEC. Robust non-OPEC supply gains of 2.1 mb/d in 2020 and a contraction in demand cut the call on OPEC crude to 27.3 mb/d. In 1Q20, the call is 25 mb/d, 3.5 mb/d below the group’s assumed output for the period.
Source: IEA
Investors pull $41.7bn from emerging markets amid coronavirus outbreak
Foreign investors have withdrawn $41.7bn from EM stocks and bonds since global markets woke up to the Covid-19 outbreak on January 21, according to the Institute of International Finance. That was double the amount of outflows in the same 51-day period after September 8, 2008.
Source: azerbaycan24.com
March 13, 2020--Summary:
We propose a framework to link empirical models of systemic risk to theoretical network/ general equilibrium models used to understand the channels of transmission of systemic risk. The theoretical model allows for systemic risk due to interbank counterparty risk, common asset exposures/fire sales, and a "Minsky" cycle of optimism.
March 22, 2020--Summary:
Investors seek to hedge against interest rate risk by taking long or short positions on bonds of different maturities. We study changes in risk taking behavior in a low interest rate environment by estimating a market stochastic discount factor that is non-linear and therefore consistent with the empirical properties of cashflow valuations identified in the literature.
March 12, 2020--Bitcoin plunged on Thursday, at one point sinking through US$6,000 for the first time since May as a sell-off in cryptocurrencies became a rout amid wider market turmoil sparked by the coronavirus pandemic.
March 12, 2020-The situation remains very fluid, however, making it extremely difficult to assess the full impact
Highlights
Covid-19 (coronavirus) has spread beyond China and our 2020 base case global oil demand forecast is cut by 1.1 mb/d. For the first time since 2009, demand is expected to fall year-on-year, by 90 kb/d. In 1Q20, China's demand falls by 1.8 mb/d y-o-y with global demand down 2.5 mb/d.
March 11, 2020--Outflows from emerging market stocks and bonds since the onset of the coronavirus outbreak have dwarfed the amount that left EM assets at the start of the global financial crisis, highlighting the strength of risk aversion among global investors.
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