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IMF-Digitalization During the COVID-19 Crisis: Implications for Productivity and Labor Markets in Advanced Economies
March 13, 2023--Summary:
Digitalization induced by the pandemic was seen both as a possible silver-lining from the crisis that could increase longer-term productivity and a risk for further labor market inequality between digital and non-digital workers. The note shows that the pandemic accelerated digitalization and triggered a partial catch-up by less digitalized entities in advanced economies.
Higher digitalization levels shielded substantially productivity and hours worked during the crisis. However, the extent to which the pandemic-induced digitalization led to structural change in the economy is less clear. Less digitalized sectors have rebounded more strongly, albeit after stronger declines, and while workers in digital occupations were more shielded from the crisis, there does not appear to be a structural change in the composition of labor demand. Meanwhile, shifts in labor supply are more likely to be permanent, driven by the increase in working from home.
IMF Working Paper-Do Capital Controls Limit Inflow Surges?
March 10, 2023--March 10, 2023--Summary:
With rising financial integration, the magnitude and swings in capital flows have increased in the past two decades, intensifying the policy debate on how best to deal with these flows. This paper assesses the use and effectiveness of capital controls in limiting inflow surges.
Using a novel dataset on capital control changes across 40 advanced and emerging market and developing economies over 1995-2018, we find that the tightening of capital controls reduces the probability of future surges both at the aggregate and the asset flow levels. The results are robust to various definitions of surges and are stronger when controls are matched to the asset class they target. Finally, we also find significant multilateral spillovers from capital control actions, pointing towards the need for international cooperation in the use of these policies.
Reduce pollution to combat 'superbugs' and other anti-microbial resistance
March 7, 2023--Up to 10 million people could die annually by 2050 due to anti-microbial resistance (AMR), the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) said in a report launched in Bridgetown, Barbados, on Tuesday, highlighting the need to curtail pollution created by the pharmaceuticals, agricultural and healthcare sectors.
The study focuses on the environmental dimensions of AMR, which occurs when bacteria, viruses, fungi, and parasites change over time and no longer respond to medicines.
It calls for strengthening action to reduce the emergence, transmission and spread of "superbugs"-strains of bacteria that have become resistant to every known biotic-and other instances of AMR, which are already taking a serious toll on human, animal, and plant health.
IMF-It's time to rethink the foundation and framework of monetary policy
March 2, 2023--In 2008, Queen Elizabeth II famously asked professors at the London School of Economics (LSE) about the global financial crisis: "Why did no one see it coming?" If Charles III were following in the footsteps of his mother, he would surely ask a similar question today, but about high inflation.
This question is more compelling for two reasons. First, before the recent inflation spike to levels not seen in 40 years, many central banks in advanced economies were overwhelmingly concerned about low inflation. Second, they confidently contended that inflation was transitory and failed to restrain it even as prices rose rapidly.
The triggering events, notably trade and production disruption owing to the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, were supply-side events. These were considered outside the remit of monetary policy. But the impact of triggering events on inflation varies according to preexisting financial conditions, which are in turn shaped by monetary policy. Central bankers, therefore, are not entirely blameless.
Pace of Reform Toward Equal Rights for Women Falls to 20-Year Low
March 2, 2023--"Reform fatigue" poses obstacle to economic growth at a critical time
The global pace of reforms toward equal treatment of women under the law has slumped to a 20-year low, constituting a potential impediment to economic growth at a critical time for the global economy, a new World Bank report shows.
In 2022, the global average score on the World Bank's Women, Business and the Law index rose just half a point to 77.1-indicating women, on average, enjoy barely 77 percent of the legal rights that men do. At the current pace of reform, in many countries a woman entering the workforce today will retire before she will be able to gain the same rights as men, the report notes.
IMF-Crisis and Monetary Policy
March 1, 2023--The pandemic and war have bred new challenges for global central banks in coming years
The global inflation surge that abruptly ended decades of moderating price gains came at a unique confluence of crises: the global pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Now, economists must ask, What lessons does this era offer for monetary policy? We might begin with the lessons from the pandemic and war that are relevant for monetary policy, even if the world eventually moves back to an environment of low interest rates and low inflation. Most economists missed the inflation surge, and we need to understand why, and how monetary policy may have to change going forward.
WTO-Goods barometer declines further, hinting at fourth quarter trade slump
March 1, 2023--World merchandise trade growth appears to have lost momentum in the fourth quarter of 2022 and is likely to remain weak in the first quarter of 2023, according to the latest WTO Goods Trade Barometer issued on 1 March. The overall barometer index continues to point to weakening trade growth in volume terms after falling to 92.2, down from 96.2 in the previous release and well below the baseline value of 100.
The volume of world merchandise trade was up 5.6% in the third quarter of 2022 compared to the same quarter in the previous year. Meanwhile, cumulative year-on-year growth for the first three quarters of 2022 stood at 4.4%, above the WTO's forecast released last October of 3.5% for the whole year. A downturn in the fourth quarter would bring actual trade growth more in line with the WTO's forecast for 2022. Any slowdown may prove to be short lived since container throughput of Chinese ports and new export orders from Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) have already started to pick up.
In Major Economic Shocks, Best Response Combines All-Out, Large-Scale Policies
February 27, 2023--Bank lending grew faster in countries with policy packages combining large fiscal, monetary, and prudential measures.
Economists will be studying the pandemic for generations to learn from the dramatic global downturn and the ensuing credit crunch, but one important lesson about the scope of action needed to contain the next global crisis is already coming into focus.
During the pandemic, countries often used all-out responses that combined large fiscal, monetary, and prudential policies like grants, credit facilities, and relaxed capital requirements. As we demonstrate in a new working paper, this kind of expansive response may be needed to support corporate borrowing and credit growth in major future crises that combine global supply and demand shocks.
A woman dies every two minutes due to pregnancy or childbirth: UN agencies
February 23, 2023--New data show major setbacks for maternal health in many parts of the world, highlighting stark disparities in healthcare access
Every two minutes, a woman dies during pregnancy or childbirth, according to the latest estimates released in a report by United Nations (UN) agencies today. This report, Trends in maternal mortality, reveals alarming setbacks for women's health over recent years, as maternal deaths either increased or stagnated in nearly all regions of the world.
WTO note finds global trade resilient following one year of war in Ukraine
February 23, 2023--A new WTO information note released on 23 February reports that global trade remained resilient and performed better than pessimistic predictions for 2022 as economies greatly affected by the war in Ukraine found alternative sources of supply.
For the longer-term outlook, new WTO simulations show the importance of strengthening the multilateral trading system, with least-developed countries likely to be hardest hit if international cooperation were to break down.
The note titled"One year of war in Ukraine: Assessing the impact on global trade and development" estimates that trade growth in 2022 was above the WTO trade forecast of 3% issued in April and substantially higher than its estimates for more pessimistic scenarios for the year. The stability of global trade was also evident in global supply chains, confirmed by the 4% year-on-year growth of trade in intermediate goods in the second quarter of 2022.
