Global Economy: Tenuous Resilience amid Persistent Uncertainty

July 29, 2025--Global growth expected to decelerate as trade-related distortions wane
Global current account balances widened by a sizable 0.6 percentage points of world GDP in 2024.
Global growth is projected at 3.0 percent for 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026, an upward revision from the April 2025 World Economic Outlook.

This reflects front-loading ahead of tariffs, lower effective tariff rates, better financial conditions, and fiscal expansion in some major jurisdictions.

Global inflation is expected to fall, but US inflation is predicted to stay above target. Downside risks from potentially higher tariffs, elevated uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions persist.

IMF World Economic Outlook -Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim October 2025

October 14, 2025-- While the near-term forecast is revised up modestly, global growth remains subdued, as the newly introduced policies slowly come into focus
The global economy is adjusting to a landscape reshaped by new policy measures. Some extremes of higher tariffs were tempered, thanks to subsequent deals and resets. But the overall environment remains volatile, and temporary factors that supported activity in the first half of 2025-such as front-loading are fading.