Global Economy: Tenuous Resilience amid Persistent Uncertainty

July 29, 2025--Global growth expected to decelerate as trade-related distortions wane
Global current account balances widened by a sizable 0.6 percentage points of world GDP in 2024.
Global growth is projected at 3.0 percent for 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026, an upward revision from the April 2025 World Economic Outlook.

This reflects front-loading ahead of tariffs, lower effective tariff rates, better financial conditions, and fiscal expansion in some major jurisdictions.

Global inflation is expected to fall, but US inflation is predicted to stay above target. Downside risks from potentially higher tariffs, elevated uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions persist.

Goods trade growth set to moderate as barometer index dips

November 28, 2025-Goods trade growth appears to have slowed in the second half of 2025 following a surge in the first half driven by frontloading of imports ahead of expected tariff hikes and by rising demand for AI-related products, according to the latest WTO Goods Trade Barometer.