World Bank Prospects Group Global Monthly-April 2025
April 30, 2025--Overview
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Special Focus: Synchronization of Business Cycles in EMDEs and the Rest of the World
Emerging market and developing economies' (EMDEs') increasing trade and financial integration with the rest of the world over recent decades has been accompanied by greater comovement of economic activity across EMDEs. Although EMDEs' business cycles are increasingly synchronized, GDP growth in EMDEs still tends to be more correlated with growth in advanced economies (AEs). Growth variation across economies can be attributed to three factors: a global factor capturing common cyclical movements across all economies; a group factor specific to AEs or EMDEs; and a factor specific to each economy. For EMDEs, the group factor has become increasingly important. |
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