As One Cycle Ends, Another Begins Amid Growing Divergence

January 17, 2025--Growth divergences persist and could widen, while policy shifts may reignite inflation pressures in some countries
We project global growth will remain steady at 3.3 percent this year and next, broadly aligned with potential growth that has substantially weakened since before the pandemic. Inflation is declining, to 4.2 percent this year and 3.5 percent next year, in a return to central bank targets that will allow further normalization of monetary policy.

This will help draw to a close the global disruptions of recent years, including the pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which precipitated the largest inflation surge in four decades.

Though the global growth outlook is broadly unchanged from October, divergences across countries are widening. Among advanced economies, the United States is stronger than previously projected on continued strength in domestic demand. We have raised our growth projection for the US this year by 0.5 percentage point, to 2.7 percent.

IMF World Economic Outlook -Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim October 2025

October 14, 2025-- While the near-term forecast is revised up modestly, global growth remains subdued, as the newly introduced policies slowly come into focus
The global economy is adjusting to a landscape reshaped by new policy measures. Some extremes of higher tariffs were tempered, thanks to subsequent deals and resets. But the overall environment remains volatile, and temporary factors that supported activity in the first half of 2025-such as front-loading are fading.