IMF-The Global Economy in a Sticky Spot-Global growth broadly unchanged amid persistent services inflation

July 23, 2024--Global growth is projected to be in line with the April 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast, at 3.2 percent in 2024 and 3.3 percent in 2025.
Services inflation is holding up progress on disinflation, which is complicating monetary policy normalization.

Upside risks to inflation have thus increased, raising the prospect of higher for even longer interest rates, in the context of escalating trade tensions and increased policy uncertainty.

The policy mix should thus be sequenced carefully to achieve price stability and replenish diminished buffers.

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IMF World Economic Outlook -Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim October 2025

October 14, 2025-- While the near-term forecast is revised up modestly, global growth remains subdued, as the newly introduced policies slowly come into focus
The global economy is adjusting to a landscape reshaped by new policy measures. Some extremes of higher tariffs were tempered, thanks to subsequent deals and resets. But the overall environment remains volatile, and temporary factors that supported activity in the first half of 2025-such as front-loading are fading.

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