BIS Annual Economic Report 2024

June 30, 2024--Introduction
So far, so good. The world economy appears to be finally leaving behind the legacy of the Covid-19 pandemic and the commodity price shock of the war in Ukraine. The worst fears did not materialise. On balance, globally, inflation is continuing to decline towards targets, economic activity and the financial system have proved remarkably resilient, and both professional forecasters and financial market participants see a smooth landing ahead.

This was by no means a given a year ago. It is a great outcome.

Still, there is a "but". Challenges remain. The recent stickiness of inflation in some key jurisdictions reminds us that central banks' job is not yet done. Financial vulnerabilities have not gone away. Fragile fiscal positions cast a shadow as far as the eye can see. Subdued productivity growth clouds economic prospects. Beyond the near term, laying a more solid foundation for the future is as difficult as ever. It could not be otherwise: it is an arduous task that requires a long-term view, courage and perseverance.

IMF World Economic Outlook -Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim October 2025

October 14, 2025-- While the near-term forecast is revised up modestly, global growth remains subdued, as the newly introduced policies slowly come into focus
The global economy is adjusting to a landscape reshaped by new policy measures. Some extremes of higher tariffs were tempered, thanks to subsequent deals and resets. But the overall environment remains volatile, and temporary factors that supported activity in the first half of 2025-such as front-loading are fading.