Global Economy Set for Weakest Half-Decade Performance in 30 Years

January 9, 2024--Reforms to boost investment and strengthen fiscal policy could help turn the tide
As the world nears the midpoint of what was intended to be a transformative decade for development, the global economy is set to rack up a sorry record by the end of 2024-the slowest half-decade of GDP growth in 30 years, according to the World Bank's latest Global Economic Prospects report.

By one measure, the global economy is in a better place than it was a year ago: the risk of a global recession has receded, largely because of the strength of the U.S. economy. But mounting geopolitical tensions could create fresh near-term hazards for the world economy.

Meanwhile, the medium-term outlook has darkened for many developing economies amid slowing growth in most major economies, sluggish global trade, and the tightest financial conditions in decades. Global trade growth in 2024 is expected to be only half the average in the decade before the pandemic . Meanwhile, borrowing costs for developing economies-especially those with poor credit ratings-are likely to remain steep with global interest rates stuck at four-decade highs in inflation-adjusted terms.

IMF World Economic Outlook -Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim October 2025

October 14, 2025-- While the near-term forecast is revised up modestly, global growth remains subdued, as the newly introduced policies slowly come into focus
The global economy is adjusting to a landscape reshaped by new policy measures. Some extremes of higher tariffs were tempered, thanks to subsequent deals and resets. But the overall environment remains volatile, and temporary factors that supported activity in the first half of 2025-such as front-loading are fading.