Global Commodity Prices Level Off, Hurting Prospects for Lower Inflation
April 25, 2024--Major flare-up in Middle-East conflict could stoke global inflation
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Between mid-2022 and mid-2023, global commodity prices plummeted by nearly 40%. This helped to drive most of the roughly 2-percentage-point reduction in global inflation between 2022 and 2023. Since mid-2023, however, the World Bank's index of commodity prices has remained essentially unchanged. Assuming no further flare-up in geopolitical tensions, the Bank's forecasts call for a decline of 3% in global commodity prices in 2024 and 4% in 2025. That pace will do little to subdue inflation that remains above central bank targets in most countries. It will keep commodity prices about 38% higher than they were on average in the five years before the COVID-19 pandemic. |
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