IMF Working Paper-Changing Global Linkages: A New Cold War?

April 5, 2024--Summary:
Global linkages are changing amidst elevated geopolitical tensions and a surge in policies directed at increasing supply chain resilience and national security. Using granular bilateral data, this paper provides new evidence of trade and investment fragmentation along geopolitical lines since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and compares it to the historical experience of the early years of the Cold War.

Gravity model estimates point to significant declines in trade and FDI flows between countries in geopolitically distant blocs since the onset of the war in Ukraine, relative to flows between countries in the same bloc (roughly 12% and 20%, respectively). While the extent of fragmentation is still relatively small and we do not know how longlasting it will be, the decoupling between the rival geopolitical blocs during the Cold War suggests it could worsen considerably should geopolitical tensions persist and trade restrictive policies intensify. Different from the early years of the Cold War, a set of nonaligned ‘connector’ countries are rapidly gaining importance and serving as a bridge between blocs. The emergence of connectors has likely brought resilience to global trade and activity, but does not necessarily increase diversification, strengthen supply chains, or lessen strategic dependence.

Bitnomial Joins ISG, Opening Door to More Crypto Spot ETFs

October 29, 2025-Issued on behalf of GoldHaven Resources Corp.
Prices have surged over 25% since early 2025[1], with the precious metal holding near the $4,000 per ounce level as investors pile into safe-haven assets amid ongoing inflation and economic uncertainty.

Commodity Prices to Hit Six-Year Low in 2026 as Oil Glut Expands

October 29, 2025-Global commodity prices are projected to fall to their lowest level in six years in 2026, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline, according to the World Bank Group's latest Commodity Markets Outlook.
Inflationary Pressures Ease, But Geopolitical Tensions Cloud Outlook