IMF Working Paper-Changing Global Linkages: A New Cold War?

April 5, 2024--Summary:
Global linkages are changing amidst elevated geopolitical tensions and a surge in policies directed at increasing supply chain resilience and national security. Using granular bilateral data, this paper provides new evidence of trade and investment fragmentation along geopolitical lines since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and compares it to the historical experience of the early years of the Cold War.

Gravity model estimates point to significant declines in trade and FDI flows between countries in geopolitically distant blocs since the onset of the war in Ukraine, relative to flows between countries in the same bloc (roughly 12% and 20%, respectively). While the extent of fragmentation is still relatively small and we do not know how longlasting it will be, the decoupling between the rival geopolitical blocs during the Cold War suggests it could worsen considerably should geopolitical tensions persist and trade restrictive policies intensify. Different from the early years of the Cold War, a set of nonaligned ‘connector’ countries are rapidly gaining importance and serving as a bridge between blocs. The emergence of connectors has likely brought resilience to global trade and activity, but does not necessarily increase diversification, strengthen supply chains, or lessen strategic dependence.

New WFE Research quantifies the impact of stock exchanges on economic growth

January 6, 2025--The World Federation of Exchanges, the global industry association for exchanges and CCPs (The WFE), has published new research which analyses the link between stock market development and economic growth on a global scale.
The research analysed quarterly data from 36 countries over two decades (2003-2022).

5 transformational trends shaping global finance

January 6, 2025--The global economy has undergone seismic changes since the pandemic.
Major structural shifts are underway, shaped by five fundamental forces:
Deglobalization, decarbonization, debt, digitalization, and demographics.
The global economy is very different now compared with even just a few years ago.