China continues to dominate an expanded BRICS

April 12, 2024--In Brief
China's economic size and increasing assertiveness in foreign policy give it a dominant position in BRICS, which is reflected in intra-bloc trade flows and in the bloc's foreign policy positions. The future of BRICS is uncertain given its heavy dependence on China's economic future and the deteriorating sentiment towards China among its members. India's fast growth and increasing geopolitical heft also pose a challenge for the continuation of BRICS as a China-centric grouping.

The origins of BRICS -a bloc comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and, as of 2024, new members Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates -can be traced back to a 2001 publication by Goldman Sachs economist Jim O’Neill titled 'Building Better Global Economic BRICs'. O'Neill argued that Brazil, Russia, India and China were poised to play an increasingly significant role in the global economy.

His prediction was that by 2050, these countries would collectively account for 40 per cent of the world's economic output. In reality, from 2012 to 2022 China alone has accounted for around a quarter of global GDP growth, and the BRICS countries together contributed over 45 per cent.

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