| WTO forecasts rebound in global trade but warns of downside risks
April 10, 2024--Global goods trade is expected to pick up gradually this year following a contraction in 2023 that was driven by the lingering effects of high energy prices and inflation, WTO economists said in a new forecast on 10 April. The volume of world merchandise trade should increase by 2.6% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025 after falling 1.2% in 2023. However, regional conflicts, geopolitical tensions and economic policy uncertainty pose substantial downside risks to the forecast. |
| In the latest "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics" report, WTO economists note that inflationary pressures are expected to abate this year, allowing real incomes to grow again-particularly in advanced economies- thus providing a boost to the consumption of manufactured goods. A recovery of demand for tradable goods in 2024 is already evident, with indices of new export orders pointing to improving conditions for trade at the start of the year. |