Emerging Markets Navigate Global Interest Rate Volatility

January 31, 2024--Major emerging markets have shown resilience to global rate gyrations, but more challenging times could be ahead
Global interest rates in recent months have gone on a rollercoaster, especially those on longer-term government bonds. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries are climbing again after pulling back from a 16-year high of 5 percent in October. Interest rate moves in other advanced economies had been equally prodigious.

Emerging market economies, however, saw much milder rate moves. We take a longer-term perspective on this in our latest Global Financial Stability Report, demonstrating that the average sensitivity to US interest rates of 10-year sovereign yield of Latin American and Asian emerging markets declined by two-thirds and two-fifths, respectively, during the current monetary policy tightening cycle compared with the taper tantrum in 2013.

While the lower sensitivity is in part due to the divergence in monetary policy between advanced economies’ and emerging markets’ central banks over the past two years, it nonetheless challenges findings in the economic literature that show large spillovers from advanced economies’ interest rates to emerging markets. In particular, major emerging markets have been more insulated from global interest rate volatility than would be expected based on historical experience, especially in Asia.

New WFE Research quantifies the impact of stock exchanges on economic growth

January 6, 2025--The World Federation of Exchanges, the global industry association for exchanges and CCPs (The WFE), has published new research which analyses the link between stock market development and economic growth on a global scale.
The research analysed quarterly data from 36 countries over two decades (2003-2022).

5 transformational trends shaping global finance

January 6, 2025--The global economy has undergone seismic changes since the pandemic.
Major structural shifts are underway, shaped by five fundamental forces:
Deglobalization, decarbonization, debt, digitalization, and demographics.
The global economy is very different now compared with even just a few years ago.