Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain

January 30, 2024--Policy focus must shift to repairing public finances and improving medium-term growth prospects
The clouds are beginning to part. The global economy begins the final descent toward a soft landing, with inflation declining steadily and growth holding up. But the pace of expansion remains slow, and turbulence may lie ahead.
Global activity proved resilient in the second half of last year, as demand and supply factors supported major economies.

On the demand side, stronger private and government spending sustained activity, despite tight monetary conditions. On the supply side, increased labor force participation, mended supply chains and cheaper energy and commodity prices helped, despite renewed geopolitical uncertainties.

This resilience will carry over. Global growth under our baseline forecast will steady at 3.1 percent this year, a 0.2 percentage point upgrade from our October projections, before edging up to 3.2 percent next year.