IMF-History's Inflation Lessons by Ari and Ratnovski

December 1, 2023--A study of 100 inflation shocks since the 1970s provides valuable pointers for policymakers today
In the early 1970s, conflict in the Middle East set off a spike in oil prices that left central banks around the world scrambling to control inflation.

After a year or so, oil prices stabilized and inflation started to retreat. Many countries believed they had restored price stability and loosened policy to revive their recession-hit economies only to see inflation return. Could history repeat?

World inflation reached historic highs in 2022 after Russia's invasion of Ukraine triggered a terms-of-trade shock akin to that of the 1970s. Disruptions to Russian oil and gas supplies added to COVID supply-chain problems to drive prices higher. In advanced economies, prices rose at the fastest pace since 1984. In emerging market and developing economies, the price increase was the largest since the 1990s.

IMF World Economic Outlook -Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim October 2025

October 14, 2025-- While the near-term forecast is revised up modestly, global growth remains subdued, as the newly introduced policies slowly come into focus
The global economy is adjusting to a landscape reshaped by new policy measures. Some extremes of higher tariffs were tempered, thanks to subsequent deals and resets. But the overall environment remains volatile, and temporary factors that supported activity in the first half of 2025-such as front-loading are fading.