IMF-History's Inflation Lessons by Ari and Ratnovski

December 1, 2023--A study of 100 inflation shocks since the 1970s provides valuable pointers for policymakers today
In the early 1970s, conflict in the Middle East set off a spike in oil prices that left central banks around the world scrambling to control inflation.

After a year or so, oil prices stabilized and inflation started to retreat. Many countries believed they had restored price stability and loosened policy to revive their recession-hit economies only to see inflation return. Could history repeat?

World inflation reached historic highs in 2022 after Russia's invasion of Ukraine triggered a terms-of-trade shock akin to that of the 1970s. Disruptions to Russian oil and gas supplies added to COVID supply-chain problems to drive prices higher. In advanced economies, prices rose at the fastest pace since 1984. In emerging market and developing economies, the price increase was the largest since the 1990s.

Even as Global Uncertainty Surges, Economic Sentiment Remains Positive

November 10, 2025-Amid rising geopolitical rifts and trade tensions, global economic uncertainty has surged, yet sentiment about economic prospects remains positive
Major policy shifts this year have been adding to unknowns about the future and policy decisions, according to our World Uncertainty Index which has doubled since January.

Gold Market Commentary: Technical difficulties October 2025

November 6, 2025-Key takeaways for the month:
Gold hit its 50th all-time high but faced a rollercoaster ride due to a momentum flush-out and a stronger dollar. Despite this, gold posted solid gains for the month.
Looking ahead, technical indicators suggest a short pause, but the overall trend remains strong, supported by solid fundamentals.