IMF Working Paper-How Far Has Globalization Gone? A Tale of Two Regions

December 8, 2023--Summary:
We study the evolution of trade globalization in a set of countries in Latin America (mostly the largest ones) and Asia over the past 25 years. Relying on structural gravity models, we first estimate a proxy of trade globalization that captures the ease of trading internationally with respect to trading domestically. Results indicate that the evolution of trade globalization since the mid-1990s has been similar between the two regions, but very heterogeneous within them.

Trade globalization has been particularly strong in agriculture, mining and manufacturing, but has lagged in services. The paper also documents that trade globalization has been particularly strong in agriculture, mining and manufacturing, but it lagged in services. Within region heterogeneity is associated to a set of trade policy instruments, including tariffs, non-tariff measures, WTO membership. and trade agreements. Next, we quantify the economic implications of the estimated globalization trends. Simulations of a multi-sector trade model point to heterogeneous long-term impacts of globalization on GDP-some countries exhibiting substantial gains and others experiencing large losses-, with no single sector playing a preponderant role.

Even as Global Uncertainty Surges, Economic Sentiment Remains Positive

November 10, 2025-Amid rising geopolitical rifts and trade tensions, global economic uncertainty has surged, yet sentiment about economic prospects remains positive
Major policy shifts this year have been adding to unknowns about the future and policy decisions, according to our World Uncertainty Index which has doubled since January.

Gold Market Commentary: Technical difficulties October 2025

November 6, 2025-Key takeaways for the month:
Gold hit its 50th all-time high but faced a rollercoaster ride due to a momentum flush-out and a stronger dollar. Despite this, gold posted solid gains for the month.
Looking ahead, technical indicators suggest a short pause, but the overall trend remains strong, supported by solid fundamentals.