IMF Working Papers-Monetary Policy Design with Recurrent Climate Shocks

November 24, 2023--Summary:
As climate change intensifies, the frequency and severity of climate-induced disasters are expected to escalate. We develop a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model to analyze the impact of these events on monetary policy. Our model conceptualizes these disasters as left-tail productivity shocks with a quantified likelihood, leading to a skewed distribution of outcomes.

This creates a significant trade-off for central banks, balancing increased inflation risks against reduced output.

Our results suggest modifying the Taylor rule to give equal weight to responses to both inflation and output growth, indicating a gradual approach to climate exacerbated economic fluctuations.

Bybit & Block Scholes Report: Market Sentiment Shows Early Signs of Recovery

December 5, 2025-Bybit, the world's second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume has released its latest Crypto Derivatives Analytics Report in collaboration with Block Scholes, revealing cautiously optimistic signals in cryptocurrency markets following a volatile start to December.

Is the world ageing out of interest rates?

December 3, 2025-Interest rates are a key monetary policy tool used by central banks around the world to encourage changes in economic activity.
But as the global population continues to skew older, traditional monetary policy tools such as rate-setting may become less effective.
Central banks need to find ways to keep interest rates relevant, but also develop alternative tools to navigate an uncertain global economy.

Global X: Investing Outlook Complicated by Contradictions in U.S. Economy and Evolving Geopolitical Order

December 3, 2025-Despite challenges, there are ample reasons for broad optimism, including AI-driven cost savings
Despite an outlook that is complicated by contradictions in the U.S. economy and an evolving geopolitical order, Global X Management Company LLC ("Global X"), the New York-based provider of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), believes there are ample reasons for broad optimism on the U.S. economy as well as certain international markets heading into the new year.

OECD Economic Outlook. Volume 2025 Issue 2 Resilient Growth but with Increasing Fragilities

December 2, 2025-The global economy has proved more resilient than expected this year, supported by improved financial conditions, rising AI-related investment and trade, and macroeconomic policies. However, underlying fragilities are increasing. Labour markets are showing first signs of weakening despite the OECD unemployment rate steady at 4.9%, with job vacancies falling below their 2019 average in many countries and confidence softening.

Goods trade growth set to moderate as barometer index dips

November 28, 2025-Goods trade growth appears to have slowed in the second half of 2025 following a surge in the first half driven by frontloading of imports ahead of expected tariff hikes and by rising demand for AI-related products, according to the latest WTO Goods Trade Barometer.

Global economy: If a triple bubble looms, can we survive a triple burst?

November 28, 2025-The global economy faces three potential financial bubbles related to cryptocurrencies, artificial intelligence and debt.
All three are interconnected.
Bubbles tend to cause serious short-term pain when they burst-but they can also fundamentally reshape economies with lasting benefits.
It's not exactly reassuring when so many people start scanning the past for a read on what's happening in the present.