China's growth set to slow to 4.5% in 2026, raising pressure on policymakers: Reuters poll
January 15, 2025--China Q4 GDP forecast to grow 4.4% y/y, vs 4.8% in Q3
GDP growth expected at 4.5% in 2026, 4.5% in 2027
Inflation forecast 0.7% in 2026, 1.0% in 2027
Central bank expected to cut key policy rate by 10 bps in Q1
China Q4 GDP forecast to grow 4.4% y/y, vs 4.8% in Q3
GDP growth expected at 4.5% in 2026, 4.5% in 2027
Inflation forecast 0.7% in 2026, 1.0% in 2027
Central bank expected to cut key policy rate by 10 bps in Q1
China's economic growth is likely to slow to 4.5% in 2026 and maintain the same pace in 2027, a Reuters poll showed, piling pressure for more stimulus as policymakers look to address deep structural vulnerabilities to underpin the nation's longer-term health.
Gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to have grown 4.9% in 2025 - largely meeting the government's annual growth target of around 5%, helped by strong exports and policy support, according to the median forecasts of 73 economists polled by Reuters.
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Source: reuters.com
Bruegel-China economic database update
December 12, 2025-The monthly update of the China Economic Database is out now.
This month, we'd like to highlight a surge in Chinese automobile exports. In October 2025, China exported 636 thousand automobiles of all types, quickly recovering from a downturn following the EU's announcement of anti-subsidy tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) in mid-2024.
Following months of investigation, the EU concluded that Chinese subsidies to the EV sector were market distorting, prompting of tariffs. Later, China's Ministry of Commerce concluded that the EU's use of foreign subsidy regulations against China had cost their businesses well over 2 billion EUR.
After Chinese auto exports peaked in August 2024, they fell by nearly 49 percent over the course of six months, reaching their lowest point in February 2025
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Source: bruegel.org
Advancing Reforms Can Enhance Prospects-China Economic Update
December 11, 2025--China's economy maintained solid momentum in the third quarter of 2025, bringing year-to-date GDP growth to 5.2% year on year. Accommodative fiscal and monetary policies supported domestic consumption and investment, while demand from developing countries sustained exports.
However, households remained cautious in their spending amid a soft labor market and declining home prices.
Investment growth moderated in the third quarter, owing to the property sector adjustment and slower manufacturing and infrastructure investment due to profit pressures and tighter local government finances.
According to the World Bank's latest China Economic Update, Advancing Reforms, Enhancing Prospects, growth is estimated at 4.9% in 2025 and projected at 4.4% in 2026, as existing headwinds are expected to persist. Recent fiscal measures, alongside some stability in global trade policy, are expected to support investment and exports.
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Source: worldbank.org
An Income Strategy for Volatile Markets-CSOP HSCEI Covered Call Active ETF (2802.HK) Debuts on HKEX Tomorrow
December 10, 2025-CSOP HSCEI Covered Call Active ETF (2802.HK) will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on 11 December 2025. 2802.HK seeks to achieve its investment objective by primarily (i) investing in constituent equity securities in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI); and (ii) selling call options on HSCEI to receive call options premium.
2802.HK has a listing price of 8.8 HKD per unit, trading unit of 100, and management fee of 0.99%. An unlisted class is also available to investors.
CSOP HSCEI Covered Call Active ETF (2802.HK) targets monthly distributions generated by dividends from the underlying stocks on top of option premiums, making it appealing to income-focused investors seeking higher yields (Dividend rate is not guaranteed and may be paid out of the capital)[1].
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Source: CSOP Asset Management
IMF Staff Completes 2025 Article IV Mission to the People's Republic of China
December 10, 2025-IMF staff projects China's economy to grow by 5.0 percent in 2025 and 4.5 percent in 2026. These projections reflect an upward revision of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively, compared to the October WEO, driven by welcome macroeconomic policy stimulus measures and lower-than-expected tariffs on China's exports.
Despite resilient growth, imbalances remain significant amid weak domestic demand and deflationary pressures. Low inflation relative to trading partners has led to real exchange rate depreciation, contributing to strong exports and rising current account surplus.
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Source: imf.org
HKEX Expands Index Business with Launch of HKEX Tech 100 Index
December 8, 2025-New index tracks 100 companies listed in Hong Kong across six major technology-focused themes
HKEX's first Hong Kong equity index, marking a significant milestone in Group's index and data business development
HKEX enters licensing agreement with E Fund Management to issue an ETF in Chinese Mainland market
Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) is pleased to announce a major expansion of its index portfolio with the launch of the HKEX Tech 100 Index (HKEX Tech 100), the Group's first Hong Kong equity index that underscores its ongoing investment in building the vibrancy of the region's capital market ecosystem.
HKEX Tech 100 is a broad-based benchmark that tracks the performance of 100 of the largest Hong Kong-listed companies across six innovative themes: Artificial Intelligence, Biotech & Pharmaceutical, Electric Vehicles & Smart Driving, Information Technology, Internet, and Robotics. All constituents are eligible for Stock Connect Southbound trading, ensuring broad accessibility for global and Chinese Mainland investors.
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Source: Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX)
China's exports grow 5.9% in November, while U.S. shipments drop 29%
December 8, 2025-While exports from China to the U.S. have fallen for most of the year, shipments have surged to other places, including Southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa and the European Union.
China's exports returned to growth in November following an unexpected contraction the month before, although shipments to the United States dropped nearly 29% from a year earlier in an eighth straight month of double-digit declines.
Overall exports from China in November were 5.9% higher than last year in dollar terms, according to customs data released Monday, at $330.3 billion, exceeding economists' estimates.
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Source: nbcnews.com
India: 2025 Article IV Consultation
November 26, 2025-India's strong economic performance has benefitted from sound macroeconomic policies and earlier structural reforms. Despite external headwinds, growth is expected to remain resilient, with inflation remaining subdued.
Amid high uncertainty, potential upside risks stem from swift conclusions of trade agreements and
accelerated implementation of domestic structural reforms, while possible downside
risks from deepening geoeconomic fragmentation persist.
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Source: imf.org
Republic of Korea: 2025 Article IV Consultation
November 24, 2025-Prolonged domestic political and global trade policy uncertainties have weighed on economic activity since late 2024. While growth has slowed, inflation remains close to the target, and financial stability risks remain manageable. With sufficient policy space, the authorities have adopted a more accommodative macroeconomic policy stance in 2025.
Key medium-term challenges include boosting the growth potential amid rapid population aging, strengthening demand amid global uncertainty, and building long-term resilience. The new administration's Economic Growth Strategy aims to achieve technology-driven, fair, and sustainable growth, with a goal to raise potential growth to 3 percent.
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Source: imf.org
Australia: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2025 Article IV Mission
November 20, 2025-Australia is managing a soft landing amid global uncertainty: inflation has declined significantly, the labor market is still strong, and private demand is recovering. The economy is gaining momentum, with growth forecast at 1.8 percent in 2025 and 2.1 percent in 2026. However, global developments including elevated trade tensions, along with uncertainty around the momentum in private consumption and labor market conditions, pose risks to growth and inflation.
Macroeconomic policies are gradually approaching neutral settings as the economy is returning to balance. Given elevated uncertainty, scenario planning and agility in policy adjustment are essential. If global or domestic risks materialize, monetary policy should adjust, complemented by fiscal automatic stabilizers.
Boosting Australia's growth prospects requires continued efforts to tackle fiscal and structural challenges. Comprehensive tax reform and greater spending efficiency can maintain fiscal sustainability, enhance economic resilience, and boost productivity. Driving durable productivity growth also requires careful prioritizing and bundling of reforms around technology, competition, labor markets, and the green transition.
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Source: imf.org