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Turning the Corner, time to move from reforms to results
December 13, 2023---The Government of Nigeria avoided a fiscal cliff by implementing bold reforms, including ending the gasoline (premium motor spirit, PMS) subsidy, and shifting to a unified, market-reflective foreign exchange (FX) rate. These essential reforms entail painful adjustments.
They have led to an increase of retail gasoline prices by an average of 163%.
The naira has depreciated against the US dollar by approximately 41 % in the official market and by about 30% in the parallel market. To reap the benefits of the bold reforms and difficult but necessary economic adjustments now underway, it is essential to sustain and fully implement the reforms and take complementary actions.
This is the key message from the December 2023 edition of the Nigeria Development Update, titled "Turning the Corner". The report adds that the recently launched cash transfer intervention to cushion the impact of increased gasoline prices on the poor and vulnerable is providing welcome relief to a growing number of households, with 5 million households expected to be covered by the end of December.
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Source: worldbank.org
African Development Bank Revises Economic Forecast for Africa downwards amid continued global shocks
November 29, 2023--The African Development Bank has revised its short to medium-term macroeconomic forecast for Africa, for 2023 and 2024 downwards to 3.4% and 3.8%, from 4.0% and 4.3%.
The slightly lower figures reflect the persistent long-term effects of COVID-19, geopolitical tensions and conflicts, climate shocks, a global economic slowdown, and limited fiscal space for African governments to adequately respond to shocks and sustain post-pandemic economic recovery gains.
The updated data were published on Thursday, 29 November in the 2023 Africa's Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook (MEO) update, a follow-up to the Bank Group's 2023 Africa Economic Outlook released in May.
While inflationary pressures are receding globally, they are persistent in Africa and continue to weigh heavily on the continent's short-to-medium-term economic performance, according to the update. Africa's inflation is now projected to average 18.5% and 17.1% in 2023 and 2024, respectively.
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Source: afdb.org
South Africa Economic Update: Raising South Africa's Economic Prospects by Curbing Crime
November 22, 2023--The fourteenth edition of the South Africa Economic Update, Safety First: The Economic Cost of Crime in South Africa, discusses South Africa's economic prospects and highlights the critical need to address the challenge of high crime, to reduce its adverse effects on the economy and society at large.
South Africa's GDP growth has returned to its pre-pandemic trend and is expected to increase by 0.7 percent in 2023 and is projected to rise to an average of 1.5 percent from 2024 to 2026 due to the gradual easing of electricity supply constraints. Accelerating the implementation of structural reforms will boost South Africa's growth potential.
The challenge of high crime rates undermines the country's economic dynamism, with an impact estimated to be at least 10 percent of GDP every year. The report includes a focus chapter on the economic impact of crime in the country. High rates of crime damage the economy and contribute to misallocation of resources, through stolen property, protection costs, and missed economic opportunities.
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Source: worldbank.org
Africa: Travel, Tourism in Africa Could Boost Continent's Economy By $168 Billion- Report
November 6, 2023--The African sector is expected to grow 6.5 per cent per year over the next decade; travel & tourism could contribute $350 billion to the regional economy.
At its Global Summit in Kigali today, the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), in collaboration with VFS Global, revealed that the African Travel & Tourism sector could add $168 billion to the continent's economy and create over 18 million new jobs.
According to the report, 'Unlocking Opportunities for Travel & Tourism Growth in Africa', this potential growth is dependent on three key policies to unlock annualised growth of 6.5 per cent, reaching a contribution of more than $350 billion.
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Source: allafrica.com
Nigeria rises to 4th place in country rankings -African Trade Barometer Report 2023
October 12, 2023--Stanbic IBTC Holdings, a member of Standard Bank Group, has shared some of its latest findings from the Africa Trade Barometer 2023 Issue three report. The report, which assesses key economic indicators in Africa highlights several noteworthy developments across African countries.
According to the latest Africa Trade Barometer, Nigeria has moved up four positions from 8th to 4th in the country rankings
The recently launched and highly anticipated Africa Trade Barometer provides valuable insights into Africa's trade dynamics and opportunities. This edition highlights Nigeria's significant role in shaping the continent's trade landscape, comprehensively analysing its current state and prospects.
https://www.standardbank.com/sbg/standard-bank-group/what-we-do/trade-barometer
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Source: msmeafricaonline.com
To Avert a "Lost Decade," Africa Must Urgently Achieve Stability, Increase Growth, and Create Jobs
October 4, 2023--Sub-Saharan Africa's economic outlook remains bleak amid an elusive growth recovery. According to the latest World Bank Africa's Pulse report, rising instability, weak growth in the region's largest economies, and lingering uncertainty in the global economy are dragging down growth prospects in the region.
Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is forecast to decelerate to 2.5% in 2023, from 3.6% in 2022. South Africa's GDP is expected to only grow by 0.5% in 2023 as energy and transportation bottlenecks continue to bite. Nigeria and Angola are projected to grow at 2.9% and 1.3% respectively, due to lower international prices and currency pressures affecting oil and non-oil activity.
Increased conflict and violence in the region weigh on economic activity, and this rising fragility may be exacerbated by climatic shocks. In Sudan, economic activity is expected to contract by 12% because of the internal conflict which is halting production, destroying human capital, and crippling state capacity.
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Source: worldbank.org
Nigeria: Investors in Nigeria Gain Access to Nairobi, Ghana Stock Exchanges
October 4, 2023--Investors in Nigeria can now invest in securities listed on the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) and the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE).
The move was facilitated by Afrinvest (West Africa) Limited in partnership with the Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX) and Secondary Securities Trading & Aggregation Exchange ("SecondSTAX")
It was gathered that the partnership, which brings together Afrinvest's wealth of experience as a leading capital market operator and SecondSTAX's innovative technology platform, will grant investors access to multiple African financial markets, beginning with Ghana and Kenya.
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Source: allafrica.com
IMF-The African Century
September 1, 2023--A demographic transformation in Africa has the potential to alter the world order
Last November, the global population reached a significant milestone of 8 billion. More recently, in April, India overtook China as the world's most populous country.
It is Africa's booming population, however, that commands attention, with its demographic transformation set to reshape the continent and the world beyond.
Africa's population, estimated to be around 140 million in the year 1900, accounted for 9 percent of the world's population at that time; however, its share has since doubled. Fueled by a combination of falling mortality and some of the highest birth rates in the world, Africa's total population has increased tenfold and now stands at over 1.4 billion.
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Source: imf.org
Africa's Fragile States Are Greatest Climate Change Casualties
August 30, 2023--International partners must support the continent's most vulnerable countries to adapt to extreme weather-or spillovers could become more disruptive
Climate change poses grave threats to countries across Africa-but especially fragile and conflict-affected states.
As the continent's leaders converge on Kenya for next week's African Climate Action Summit, it is vital that they come up with solutions to support these vulnerable countries.
From the Central African Republic to Somalia and Sudan, fragile states suffer more from floods, droughts, storms and other climate-related shocks than other countries, when they have contributed the least to climate change. Each year, three times more people are affected by natural disasters in fragile states than in other countries. Disasters in fragile states displace more than twice the share of the population in other countries.
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Source: imf.org
2023 Southern Africa Economic Outlook: Southern Africa's economic prospects subdued, yet abounds with investment opportunity in climate change initiatives
July 25, 2023--The Southern Africa region has seen a slowdown in economic growth over the past year as its largest economy, South Africa, confronts multiple challenges. Civil unrest, electricity crisis and natural disasters have contributed to dampen prospects for the region, which is lagging behind the others in Africa, according to the African Development Bank's new economic report.
The 2023 Southern Africa Economic Outlook, launched on Monday 24 July, analyses the recent economic trends and developments in Southern Africa. In line with this year's theme for the annual outlook: mobilizing private sector financing for climate and green growth in Africa, the report also explores the potential role of the private sector in financing the region's climate action and green growth ambitions.
In 2022, the Southern Africa region's GDP growth barely reached 2.7 percent, a level much lower than global and African averages of 3.4% and 3.8 %.
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Source: afdb.org