CBO-The Long-Term Budget Outlook Under Alternative Scenarios for the Economy and the Budget

May 28, 2025--Summary
The Congressional Budget Office projects that if current laws governing revenues and spending generally remained unchanged, federal debt held by the public, boosted by large deficits, would increase from 100 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 to 156 percent of GDP in 2055-exceeding any previously recorded level and on track to increase further.

The federal budget deficit would remain large by historical standards in relation to GDP over the next 30 years, driving up federal debt. Those long-term budget projections-referred to as CBO's extended baseline-are not predictions of budgetary outcomes; rather, they give lawmakers a benchmark for measuring the effects of policy options or proposed legislation.

Economic conditions that differ from those that CBO projects and fiscal policy that differs from current law could yield noticeably different results. To show how changes in economic conditions or in fiscal policy might affect budgetary and economic outcomes, CBO analyzed eight scenarios that differ from those underlying the agency's extended baseline-six that vary economic conditions and two that vary budgetary conditions.

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Source: Congressional Budget Office (cbo.gov)