ECB-Account of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank 6-7 March 2024

April 4, 2024-1. Review of financial, economic and monetary developments and policy options Financial market developments

Ms Schnabel noted that, since the Governing Council's previous monetary policy meeting on 24-25 January 2024, monetary policy expectations had retracted further from the early and large interest rate cuts initially foreseen at the turn of the year.

More favourable news on the global economy and less favourable news on inflation had both been key factors in shaping financial market developments. In the case of the first factor, macroeconomic data surprises had moved into positive territory in the euro area, the United States and China for the first time since May 2023. As a result, investors attached a discernibly lower probability to the scenario of a hard landing for the global economy.

The second factor related to a reassessment of the medium-term inflation outlook. Higher than expected inflation releases in the euro area and the United States, especially for core inflation, had dented investors' hopes of rapid and smooth disinflation.

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