The European Central Bank, inflation tolerance and the last mile

March 20, 2024--Inflation in the euro area has declined convincingly from the very high levels seen in the past couple of years. The rate is expected to be 2.3% in 2024-what a difference from 8.4% in 2022 and 5.6% in 2023.
But in January 2024 it was still 2.8%, so still has some way to go before dropping to 2.3%, and then to 2%, which is commonly considered to be the desirable level.

In a speech in November, European Central Bank (ECB) executive board member, Isabel Schnabel seemed to pre-empt this, talking about the "last mile" that, just like in endurance sports, is the hardest to push through.

But insisting on completing the "last mile" is quite the wrong narrative to follow. As the system is rigged with uncertainty and there is no way of understanding either the direction or size of risks, the ECB should talk instead about inflation tolerance -or risk introducing even greater volatility into the system.

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