European Commission-Summer 2023 Economic Forecast: Easing growth momentum amid declining inflation and robust labour market

September 11, 2023--The European Commission has today presented the Summer 2023 Economic Forecast.
The EU economy continues to grow, albeit with reduced momentum. The forecast revises growth in the EU economy down to 0.8% in 2023, from 1% projected in the Spring Forecast, and 1.4% in 2024, from 1.7%.

It also revises growth in the euro area down to 0.8% in 2023 (from 1.1%) and 1.3% in 2024 (from 1.6%).

Inflation is expected to continue to decline over the forecast horizon. Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) inflation is now projected to reach 6.5% in 2023 (compared to 6.7% in the spring) and 3.2% in 2024 (compared to 3.1%) in the EU. In the euro area, inflation is forecast to be 5.6% in 2023 (compared to 5.8%) and 2.9% in 2024 (compared to 2.8%).

A reduced growth momentum
Latest data confirm that economic activity in the EU was subdued in the first half of 2023 on the back of the formidable shocks that the EU has endured. Weakness in domestic demand, in particular consumption, shows that high and still increasing consumer prices for most goods and services are taking a heavier toll than expected in the Spring Forecast.

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