A Few White Papers
you are currently viewing::IMF Working Paper: Market Access and High Spread IssuancesJanuary 16, 2026-Summary Second, we estimate a random forest model to assess the key predictors of market access. We find that outstanding obligations, reserves, short-term external debt, EMBIG spreads and the size of the economy are key predictors of market access. Important non-linear effects include an inverted U-curve for the effect of spreads on likelihood of issuance; a positive relationship between likelihood of issuance and external debt at low spreads that turns negative at high spreads; and a high sensitivity to governance only for high spreads. Finally, we collect a novel dataset and examine the characteristics of high spread issuances, which are often unconventional and include guarantees, contingencies or collateral, in line with what theory predicts. Source: imf.org |
IMF Working Paper: From Par to Pressure: Liquidity, Redemptions, and Fire Sales with a Systemic Stablecoin
January 16, 2026-Summary
Fiat-backed stablecoins are expanding, and their issuers may attain systemic relevance as reserve portfolios grow and as they become increasingly intertwined with financial markets. This paper analyzes the resulting risks and the design choices that can mitigate them. A detailed financial-economics discussion forms the core of the paper.
IMF Working Paper The Economic Implications of the Energy Transition in Asia-Pacific
January 9, 2026--Summary
This paper examines the economic effects of the global energy transition and the large uncertainty surrounding future fossil fuel demand on countries in the Asia-Pacific region. Under the paper's baseline, coal demand is expected to shrink by 15 percent by 2035, although depending on global policy ambition and technological uptake, the decline could be as large as 45 percent.
Four Futures for the New Economy: Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030
January 12, 2025-Four Futures for the New Economy: Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030 explores how the powerful interplay between geopolitical shifts and rapid technological change is reshaping the global economic landscape.
IMF Working Paper Demographics and Consumption in Asia Toward 2050
November 21, 2025-Summary
What are the implications of demographics on total consumption and its sectoral composition in Asia toward 2050? Although the literature has studied total consumption and individual consumption categories separately, the research that studies both is scarce.
IMF Working Paper Elections Matter: Capital Flows and Political Cycles
November 19, 2025-Summary
How should central banks explore tokenized reserves? Central banks are increasingly exploring how to make their reserves available to selected banks using distributed ledger technology, referred to as tokenized reserves.
IMF Working Paper Elections Matter: Capital Flows and Political Cycles
November 14, 2025-Summary
This paper contributes to the relatively limited literature on the impact of political uncertainty on international capital flows to emerging market economies. We incorporate elections as a proxy for political uncertainty into a standard push-pull framework for analyzing capital flows.
Hidden in Plain Sight: Physical Risk in Asset Owners' Portfolios
November 3, 2025-Corporate asset locations are a critical source of financial-risk intelligence for investors. More so when coupled with powerful overlays related to physical climate risk.
MSCI's new study, conducted in collaboration with Swiss Re Risk Data Solutions, analyzed more than 11,000 companies and 500,000 physical assets underpinning the listed-equity portfolios of 18 leading asset owners, representing USD 4 trillion in AUM.
